a)
Check the statement; the probability of the union of two events cannot be less that the probability of their intersection is true or false.
b)
Check the statement; the probability of the union of two events cannot be more than the sum of their individual probabilities is true or false.
c)
Check the statement; the probability of intersection of two events cannot be greater than either of their individual probabilities is true or false.
d)
Check the statement; an event and its complement are mutually exclusive is true or false.
e)
Check the statement; the individual probabilities of a pair of events can not sum to more than one is true or false.
f)
Check the statement; if two events are mutually exclusive, they must also be collectively exhaustive is true or false.
g)
Check the statement; if two events are collectively exhaustive, they must also be mutually exclusive is true or false.
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Chapter 3 Solutions
Statistics for Business and Economics
- 1. All potential criminals are alike. Each has a benefit B of committing a crime, where B = $10,000. The cost, to the criminal, of being punished is T=$1,000 for each year spent in prison. The probability of a criminal being caught and punished is p. Let S represent the number of years spent in prison (i.e., the sentence). Suppose there are 100 potential criminals. Each chooses whether to commit this crime which has a social harm cost of $100,000. Suppose criminals are caught with a 15% probability. The cost of prison is $5,000 per prisoner, per year. (a) Write down the condition for a rational criminal to commit a crime. What is the optimal choice of sentence, S? What is the total social cost associated with this choice!-arrow_forwardThe injured football player Bad news everyone! There is 1 second left in the game, and Tom Brady has injured himself. The matrices below depict the relative probabilities of winning givenan offensive and a defensive play call. (The row player is the New England Patriots and the column player is the opponent.) How much has the all star's home team probability of winning decreased due to the injury? Pass uny Patriots D Pass .4, .6 D Run .9,.1 .8,.2 .5,.5 Pass Run Opponent D Pass D Run .06, .94 .32, .68 .8,.2 .5,.5arrow_forwardthose determinations. Respond to the following questions in a minimum of 175 words: . Consider a situation that you might need to use your understanding of probability to make an informed decision. • What sorts of information would you collect? • How might you use what you have learned about probability to determine a course of action? What are the possible benefits and limitations of this approach? Due Monday Reply to at least 2 of your classmates. Be constructive and professional in your responses. Copyright 2020 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved. New Group 1 17 Responses 33 Repliesarrow_forward
- You and a coworker are assigned a team project on which your likelihood or a promotion will be decidedon. It is now the night before the project is due and neither has yet to start it. You both want toreceive a promotion next year, but you both also want to go to your company’s holiday party that night.Each of you wants to maximize his or her own happiness (likelihood of a promotion and mingling withyour colleagues “on the company’s dime”). If you both work, you deliver an outstanding presentation.If you both go to the party, your presentation is mediocre. If one parties and the other works, yourpresentation is above average. Partying increases happiness by 25 units. Working on the project addszero units to happiness. Happiness is also affected by your chance of a promotion, which is depends on howgood your project is. An outstanding presentation gives 40 units of happiness to each of you; an aboveaverage presentation gives 30 units of happiness; a mediocre presentation gives 10 units…arrow_forward9. The probability of a woman having a baby boy is 50% and that of having a girl is also 50% What is the probability that a woman who has three children will have three boys? of T. 10. Lebo has 3 blue pens, 2 red pens, 5 black pens and 2 pencils in his pencil case. a. What is the probability that he takes a black pen? b. What is the probability that he takes an item that is not a black pen? 11. One card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that the card will be a. red or an ace? b. a king of hearts? Samsung Quad Camera Shot with my Galaxy. A2.1sarrow_forwardMany decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utilityarrow_forward
- 1. Mr. Smith can cause an accident, which entails a monetary loss of $1000 to Ms. Adams. The likelihood of the accident depends on the precaution decisions by both individuals. Specifically, each individual can choose either "low" or "high" precaution, with the low precaution requiring no cost and the high precaution requiring the effort cost of $200 to the individual who chooses the high precaution. The following table describes the probability of an accident for each combination of the precaution choices by the two individuals. Adams chooses low precaution Adams chooses high precaution Smith chooses low precaution Smith chooses high precaution 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.1 1) What is the socially efficient outcome? For each of the following tort rules, (i) construct a table describing the individuals' payoffs under different precaution pairs and (ii) find the equilibrium precaution choices by the individuals. 2) a) No liability b) Strict liability (with full compensation) c) Negligence rule (with…arrow_forward1. Consider you toss two dices separately, and you get whatever the number above the dice. You know that the first dice is fair, but there is a 0.30 probability that outcome will be 6, and 0.30 probability that outcome will be 1 in the second dice. Each of the other outcomes has a probability 0.10 for the second dice. Which dice has the higher variance?arrow_forward1. Imagine a person who wants to find a job within two months. Define X corresponding to the outcome, such that X = 1 if the person finds a job and X = 0 otherwise. (a) Explain why X can be viewed as a random variable. What is the support of X? (b) Suppose the probability of finding a job is 0.75. What is the probability distribution of X? Be specific.arrow_forward
- In a Godiva shop, 40% of the cookies are plain truffles, 20% are black truffles, 10% are cherry cookies, and 30% are a mix of all the others. Suppose you pick one at random from a prepacked bag that reflects this composition. a. What is the probability of picking a plain truffle? b. What is the probability of picking truffle of any kind? c. If you instead pick three cookies in a row, what is the probability that all three are black truffles?arrow_forwardBob earn 60,000 a year and an accounting firm each year he receives Reyes Bob has determined that the probability that he receives a 10% raise is .7 the probability that he earns a 3% raise is .2 and the probability that he earns a 2% raise is .1 a competing company has offered Bob a similar position for 65,000 a year Bob wonders if he should take the new job or take his chances with his current job. a. Find the mathematical expectation of the dollar amount of his raise at his current job b.arrow_forward2. Christiaan can go hiking, or he can stay at home. Hiking would be fun if nothing bad happens, but there is a risk if he goes hiking that he will meet a bear (not fun) or get bitten by a snake (very not fun). Christiaan decides that if there is a 5% chance of meeting a bear and a 1% chance of getting bitten by a snake, he would prefer to go hiking rather than stay at home. However, if the chance of meeting a bear is 10% and the chance of a snake bite is 5%, he definitely would rather stay at home. then (a) Consider the utility function: U (stay home) = 25, U (hike no event) = 100, U (hike & snake) -1000, U (hike & bear) = -200. Does this utility function represent Christiaan's pref- erences? Explain. (b) Suppose that the utility function in (a) does represent Christiaan's preferences. Would Christiaan prefer to hike or stay home if the probability of meeting a bear is 6% and the probability of being bitten by a snake is 4%? Show your work.arrow_forward