Which expected opportunity loss table is appropriate given the opportunity loss table below? The probability of a market rise is P = 0.7 and the probability of a market decline is P= 0.3 Act Opportunity Loss (S) Market Rise Market Decline Investment 1 4,000 Investment 2 3,000 Expected Opportunity Loss (S) 4,000 Purchase Investment 1 Investment 2 4,000 Expected Opportunity Loss ($) 1,200 Purchase Investment 1 Investment 2 1,200 Expected Opportunity Loss ($) Purchase Investment 1 Investment 2 1,000 Expected Opportunity Loss ($) 2,800 Purchase Investment 1 Investment 2 900
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- You and a coworker are assigned a team project on which your likelihood or a promotion will be decidedon. It is now the night before the project is due and neither has yet to start it. You both want toreceive a promotion next year, but you both also want to go to your company’s holiday party that night.Each of you wants to maximize his or her own happiness (likelihood of a promotion and mingling withyour colleagues “on the company’s dime”). If you both work, you deliver an outstanding presentation.If you both go to the party, your presentation is mediocre. If one parties and the other works, yourpresentation is above average. Partying increases happiness by 25 units. Working on the project addszero units to happiness. Happiness is also affected by your chance of a promotion, which is depends on howgood your project is. An outstanding presentation gives 40 units of happiness to each of you; an aboveaverage presentation gives 30 units of happiness; a mediocre presentation gives 10 units…Find the EVPI for the below Payoff table: 162 126 320 194 State of nature 1 2 3 Probabilit y 0.3 0.4 0.3 Acts B 20 0 -20 -50 200 -100 -50 30 400 600 0Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility
- 7) Manager B Effort Level Chance of success Cost of effort High Effort 0.6 100,000 Routine Effort 0.5 60,000 What is the minimum bonus that will entice high effort? 1. 40,000 2. 260,000 3. 300,000 4. 400,000 5. 520,000 6. 60,000 7. 100,000 8. 0 6) Manager A Effort Level Chance of success Cost of effort High Effort 0.6 300,000 Routine Effort 0.5 260,000 What is the minimum bonus that will entice high effort? 1. 40,000 2. 260,000 3. 300,000 4. 400,000 5. 520,000 6. 60,000 7. 100,000 8. 0 5) ABC Instrument, a manufacturer of precise scientific instruments, relies heavily on the efforts of its local salespeople. Selling an instrument requires either luck, high effort, or some combination of the two. A salesperson who chooses to work hard has a 40 percent chance of selling an instrument in a given year while a salesperson who chooses…A physician purchases a particular vaccine on Monday of each week. The vaccine diust be used within the week following, otherwise it becomes worthless. The vaccine costss $ 2 per dose and the physician charges $ .4 per dose. In the past 50 weeks, the physician has administered the vaccine in the following quantities : Doses per Week Number of Weeks 20 25 15 50 25 60 On the basis of EMV, find how many doses the physician must purchase each week to maximise his profits ?1. A dealer decides to sell a rare book by means of an English auction with a reservation price of 54. There are two bidders. The dealer believes that there are only three possible values, 90, 54, and 45, that each bidder’s willingness to pay might take. Each bidder has a probability of 1/3 of having each of these willingnesses to pay, and the probabilities for each of the two bidders are independent of the other’s valuation. Assuming that the two bidders bid rationally and do not collude, the dealer’s expected revenue is approximately ______. 2. A seller knows that there are two bidders for the object he is selling. He believes that with probability 1/2, one has a buyer value of 5 and the other has a buyer value of 10 and with probability 1/2, one has a buyer value of 8 and the other has a buyer value of 15. He knows that bidders will want to buy the object so long as they can get it for their buyer value or less. He sells it in an English auction with a reserve price which he must…
- 5. Shift-in-charge Nazar Al Rushdy: Nazar is pessimistic about the market price. What is your guidance for Nazar? The decision to employ decision trees in crucial situations has been taken by Salem Al Harthi, the plant manager. The table below presents data on demand for a duration of 6 hours along with their respective probabilities. The first row of the table provides the probability of demand for the initial three hours when a leak occurs, denoted in parentheses. Subsequently, the following three rows indicate the probabilities of high, medium, and low demand for the succeeding three hours. To illustrate, if the initial 3-hour market price was low, the probabilities of high demand, medium demand, and low demand in the next three hours are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. Market price High Market price Medium Initial 3-hrs (0.2) Initial 3-hrs (0.5) Market price Low Initial 3-hrs (0.3) High demand (next (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 3 hrs) Medium demand (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (next 3 hours) Low demand…Does the risk correspond to the dispersion, or uncertainty, impossible outcomes?Suppose that the University of Alabama and Clemson are making spending decisions for theupcoming year. Assume that Alabama is currently spending $15 million on their recruiting andfacilities, and Clemson is spending $10 million. Each team has an additional $5 million to spendor keep as profits. If they both choose to not spend the additional $5 million then Alabama hasa 60% chance of getting the highest quality quarterback recruit to commit to them (getting thecommitment of the player is the goal). However, if they both choose to spend the additional $5million then there is a 57% chance that Alabama gets the high quality quarterback to commit. IfAlabama spends the additional $5 million but Clemson doesn’t then there is a 67% chanceAlabama gets the recruit. However, if Alabama does NOT spend the additional $5million butClemson does then there is a 50% change either team gets the recruit’s commitment. Setup thepayoff matrix and label the players, their strategies, and their payoffs, and…
- The project manager of Good Public Relations gatheredthe data shown in Table 7.15 for a new advertisingcampaign.a. How long is the project likely to take? b. What is the probability that the project will take more than38 weeks?c. Consider the path A–E–G–H–J. What is the probability thatthis path will exceed 38 weeks?34. Which one would have the greatest effecta. Consider the Oakdale Furniture Company described in the given problem. Under what circumstances might the major portion of the usage of the glue be predictable?b. If the demand were predictable, would you want to use a probability law todescribe it? Under what circumstances might the use of a probability model of demand be justified even if the demand could be predicted exactly?