Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 6, Problem 45P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The way to maximize the revenue.
Introduction: The variation between the present value of the
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Suppose that you want to invest $10,000 in the stock market by buying shares in one of two companies: A and B. Shares in company A though risky, could yield a 50% return on investment during the next year. If the stock market if conditions are not favorable (bear market) the stock may lose 20% of it value. Company B provides safe investments with 15% return in a bull market and only 5% in a bear market Ali the applications you have consulted are predicting a 60% chance for a bull market and 40% for a bear market. Where you invest your money? Construct a decision tree.
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A trust officer at the Blacksburg National Bank needs to determine how to invest $150,000 in the following collection of bonds to maximize the annual return.
Bond
Annual Return
Maturity
Risk
Tax
Free
A
9.5%
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B
8.0%
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C
9.0%
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D
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High
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E
9.0%
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High
No
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Chapter 6 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 6.3 - Prob. 1PCh. 6.3 - Prob. 2PCh. 6.3 - Solve Problem 1 with the extra assumption that the...Ch. 6.3 - Prob. 4PCh. 6.3 - Prob. 5PCh. 6.3 - Prob. 6PCh. 6.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 6.3 - Prob. 8PCh. 6.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 6.3 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 6.4 - Prob. 11PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 12PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 13PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 14PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 15PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 16PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 17PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 18PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 19PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 20PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 21PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 22PCh. 6.4 - Prob. 23PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 24PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 25PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 26PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 28PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 29PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 30PCh. 6.5 - In the optimal solution to the Green Grass...Ch. 6.5 - Prob. 32PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 33PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 34PCh. 6.5 - Prob. 35PCh. 6.6 - Prob. 36PCh. 6.6 - Prob. 37PCh. 6.6 - Prob. 38PCh. 6 - Prob. 39PCh. 6 - Prob. 40PCh. 6 - Prob. 41PCh. 6 - Prob. 42PCh. 6 - Prob. 43PCh. 6 - Prob. 44PCh. 6 - Prob. 45PCh. 6 - Prob. 46PCh. 6 - Prob. 47PCh. 6 - Prob. 48PCh. 6 - Prob. 49PCh. 6 - Prob. 50PCh. 6 - Prob. 51PCh. 6 - Prob. 52PCh. 6 - Prob. 53PCh. 6 - Prob. 54PCh. 6 - Prob. 55PCh. 6 - Prob. 56PCh. 6 - Prob. 57PCh. 6 - Prob. 58PCh. 6 - Prob. 59PCh. 6 - Prob. 60PCh. 6 - Prob. 61PCh. 6 - Prob. 62PCh. 6 - Prob. 63PCh. 6 - Prob. 64PCh. 6 - Prob. 65PCh. 6 - Prob. 66PCh. 6 - Prob. 67PCh. 6 - Prob. 68PCh. 6 - Prob. 69PCh. 6 - Prob. 70PCh. 6 - Prob. 71PCh. 6 - Prob. 72PCh. 6 - Prob. 73PCh. 6 - Prob. 74PCh. 6 - Prob. 75PCh. 6 - Prob. 76PCh. 6 - Prob. 77PCh. 6 - Prob. 78PCh. 6 - Prob. 79PCh. 6 - Prob. 80PCh. 6 - Prob. 81PCh. 6 - Prob. 82PCh. 6 - Prob. 83PCh. 6 - Prob. 84PCh. 6 - Prob. 85PCh. 6 - Prob. 86PCh. 6 - Prob. 87PCh. 6 - Prob. 88PCh. 6 - Prob. 89PCh. 6 - Prob. 90PCh. 6 - Prob. 91PCh. 6 - Prob. 92PCh. 6 - This problem is based on Motorolas online method...Ch. 6 - Prob. 94PCh. 6 - Prob. 95PCh. 6 - Prob. 96PCh. 6 - Prob. 97PCh. 6 - Prob. 98PCh. 6 - Prob. 99PCh. 6 - Prob. 100PCh. 6 - Prob. 1CCh. 6 - Prob. 2CCh. 6 - Prob. 3.1CCh. 6 - Prob. 3.2CCh. 6 - Prob. 3.3CCh. 6 - Prob. 3.4CCh. 6 - Prob. 3.5CCh. 6 - Prob. 3.6C
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- Suppose you begin year 1 with 5000. At the beginning of each year, you put half of your money under a mattress and invest the other half in Whitewater stock. During each year, there is a 40% chance that the Whitewater stock will double, and there is a 60% chance that you will lose half of your investment. To illustrate, if the stock doubles during the first year, you will have 3750 under the mattress and 3750 invested in Whitewater during year 2. You want to estimate your annual return over a 30-year period. If you end with F dollars, your annual return is (F/5000)1/30 1. For example, if you end with 100,000, your annual return is 201/30 1 = 0.105, or 10.5%. Run 1000 replications of an appropriate simulation. Based on the results, you can be 95% certain that your annual return will be between which two values?arrow_forwardIn the financial world, there are many types of complex instruments called derivatives that derive their value from the value of an underlying asset. Consider the following simple derivative. A stocks current price is 80 per share. You purchase a derivative whose value to you becomes known a month from now. Specifically, let P be the price of the stock in a month. If P is between 75 and 85, the derivative is worth nothing to you. If P is less than 75, the derivative results in a loss of 100(75-P) dollars to you. (The factor of 100 is because many derivatives involve 100 shares.) If P is greater than 85, the derivative results in a gain of 100(P-85) dollars to you. Assume that the distribution of the change in the stock price from now to a month from now is normally distributed with mean 1 and standard deviation 8. Let EMV be the expected gain/loss from this derivative. It is a weighted average of all the possible losses and gains, weighted by their likelihoods. (Of course, any loss should be expressed as a negative number. For example, a loss of 1500 should be expressed as -1500.) Unfortunately, this is a difficult probability calculation, but EMV can be estimated by an @RISK simulation. Perform this simulation with at least 1000 iterations. What is your best estimate of EMV?arrow_forwardSuppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are 42.76, 81.33, and, 58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and normally distributed. However, the means and standard deviations of these returns depend on the state of the economy, as indicated in the file P11_23.xlsx. a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%? b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?arrow_forward
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