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- Y5 Alfred is a risk-averse person with $100 in monetary wealth and owns a house worth $300, for total wealth of $400. The probability that his house is destroyed by fire (equivalent to a loss of $300) is pne = 0.5. If he exerts an effort level e = 0.3 to keep his house safe, the probability falls to pe = 0.2. His utility function is: U = w0.5 – e where e is effort level exerted (zero in the case of no effort and 0.3 in the case of effort).a. In the absence of insurance, does Alfred exert effort to lower the probability of fire?HINT: Calculate and compare the expected utility i) with effort, and ii) without effort. If effort is exerted, then the effort cost is paid regardless of whether or not a fire occurs.b. Alfred is considering buying fire insurance. The insurance agent explains that a home owner’s insurance policy would require paying a premium α and would repay the value of the house in the event of fire, minus a deductible “D”. [A deductible is an amount of money that the…Givenu(x)=x0.5 Lottery A Probability 0.50 0.25 0.25 Outcome 64 16 0 For automatic grading, give all numerical answers to exactly two decimal places. Do not include currency signs 1) What is the expected value? (Give the answer as 36.00, not 36) 2) What is the expected utility? 3) What is the certainty equivalent? (Number only) 4) What is the risk premium? 5) Would this person rather receive 20 for sure than play Lottery A? (Answer should be Y or N for auto-grading to work) 6) (Harder) In many applications of expected utility, it is possible to lose money. The usual way of handling this is to interpret utility in terms of final wealth. Suppose it costs money to play this lottery. If starting wealth is 100, calculate the expected utility of playing lottery A if the price of playing is 15. Your answer should be to two decimal places. (Note: calculating the certainty equivalent of the lottery would be a little different than we've done in class. Squaring your EU result would give…Eunice, the industry analyst of H&M, wants to determine the propensity of Major Clothingcompanies toward risk. She was able to determine the utility distribution of H&M, Uniqloand Dickies. For H&M, If the expected payoff of a venture is a loss of 125,000, the utilityvalue is 0.00, if a loss of 75,000, the utility value is .2, if breakeven, the utility value is .5,if gain of 75,000 .8 and if gain of 125,000 utility value is 1. For Uniqlo, if loss of 125,000utility value is 0, if loss of 75,000 utility value is .1, breakeven is .4, if a gain of 75,000,utility value is .7 and if gain of 125,000 utility value is 1. For Dickies, if loss of 125,000,utility value is 0, if loss of 75,000, utility value is .3 breakeven is .6, if gain of 75,000, utilityvalue is .9 and gain of 125,000, utility value is 1. What is the propensity to risk of the threeinternet companies? Explain your graph.
- ↑ Consider the following FIRE INSURANCE PROBLEM where fire destroys a $300 (thousand) house.< INSURANCE PAYOUT INSURANCE PREMIUM 200 0 EVENT FIRE → NO FIRE PROBABILITY 0.02 0.98 OUTCOME 100 300 10 10 (a) What do we mean when we say an agent is Risk Averse? (b) Assume utility is U(x) = √(x). What is the expected payoff and expected utility of having no insurance? Show your work. (c) Suppose the Insurance Premium was $10. Would this risk averse agent buy insurance? Show your work and explain. (d) Suppose the probability of a fire rose to 5%. Would the agent buy insurance now? Show your work and explain.The investor is considering how to optimally invest 1000 euros in stocks and bonds. Let's assume that the optimal decision is made based on expected utility. Suppose the investor has a utility function u(x)=ln(1+x), where x is their wealth. Let y be the proportion invested in stocks and 1−y be the proportion invested in bonds. By investing in stocks, the investor earns 1% with a probability of 39.5% and 4% with a probability of 60.5%. By investing in bonds, the investor earns a certain 2.8%. What proportion of the investment will the investor allocate to stocks and what proportion to bonds?The injured football player Bad news everyone! There is 1 second left in the game, and Tom Brady has injured himself. The matrices below depict the relative probabilities of winning givenan offensive and a defensive play call. (The row player is the New England Patriots and the column player is the opponent.) How much has the all star's home team probability of winning decreased due to the injury? Pass uny Patriots D Pass .4, .6 D Run .9,.1 .8,.2 .5,.5 Pass Run Opponent D Pass D Run .06, .94 .32, .68 .8,.2 .5,.5
- Choice under uncertainty Alice would be willing to pay up to £15 for a gamble giving a 35% chance of £50 and a 65% chance of £10. 5. (a) What is the expected value of this gamble? Represent Alice's preference over risk in a large, suitably labelled graph. The graph should include Alice's expected utility from the gamble described above. (b) Represent on the same graph the maximum amount that Alice would pay to remove the risk from this gamble.Suppose that a car - rental agency offers insurance for a week that costs $125. A minor fender bender will cost 34000 whereas a major accident might cost $16 comma 000 in repairs. Without the insurance, you would be personally liable for any damages. There are two decision alternatives: take the insurance, or do not take the insurance. You researched insurance industry statistics and found out that the probability of a major accident is 0.04% and that the probability of a fender bender is 0.18%. The expected payoff if you buy the insurance is $125.00. The expected payoff if you do not buy the insurance is $12.52. Develop a utility function for the payoffs associated with this decision for a risk-averse person. Determine the decision that would result using the utilities instead of the payoffs. Based on the expected payoffs, the best decision is to not purchase the insurance. Are these two decisions consistent?Alice would be willing to pay up to £15 for a gamble giving a 35% chance of £50 and a 65% chance of £10. (a) What is the expected value of this gamble? Represent Alice's preference over risk in a large, suitably labelled graph. The graph should include Alice's expected utility from the gamble described above (b) Represent on the same graph the maximum amount that Alice would pay to remove the risk from this gamble.
- Suppose that an individual is just willing to accept a gamble to win or lose $1000 if the probability ofwinning is 0.6. Suppose that the utility gained if the individual wins is 100 utils. What is expected gains/loss.Players would draw a card from a standard 52 card deck. Whatever card they drew determined what they won. If they draw a face card (Jack, King, Queen) then they win $5. If they draw an Ace, they win $15. For all other cards, they win nothing. A. Fill out the probability distribution table with the probabilities of each possible outcome for this game. Round decimals to four places. x $15 $5 $0 P(x) B. What is the expected value of the distribution above? (Round to the nearest cent, two decimal places.) C. If players were charged $2 per game, would they make and average profit on the games over time, or would they take an average loss over time? D. If players were charged $3 per game, would they make and average profit on the games over time, or would they take an average loss over time?A risk-averse expected-utility maximizer has initial wealth w0 and utility function u. She facesa risk of a financial loss of L dollars, which occurs with probability π. An insurance companyoffers to sell a policy that costs p dollars per dollar of coverage (per dollar paid back in theevent of a loss). Denote by x the number of dollars of coverage.(a) Give the formula for her expected utility V (x) as a function of x.(b) Suppose that u(z) = −e−zλ, π = 1/4, L = 100 and p = 1/3. Write V (x)using these values. There should be three variables, x, λ and w. Find the optimal value of x,as a function of λ and w, by solving the first-order condition (set the derivative of the expectedutility with respect to x equal to zero). (The second-order condition for this problem holds butyou do not need to check it.) Does the optimal amount of coverage increase or decrease in λ,where λ > 0?(c) Repeat exercise (b), but with p = 1/6.(d) You should find that for either (b) or (c), the optimal coverage…