Expected Monetary Value Suppose that your organization is deciding which of four projects to bid on, as summarized in the following table. Assume that all up-front investments are not recovered, so they are shown as negative profits. Calculate the EMV for each project. (Be sure to show work.) Explain which projects you would bid on. Be sure to use both the EMV information and your personal risk tolerance to justify your answer. Project Chance of Outcome Estimated Profits Project 150% $120,000 50% - $50,000 Project 2 30% 40% 30% Project 3 70% 30% Project 430% 30% 20% 20% $100,000 $50,000 - $60,000 $20,000 - $5,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $50,000

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.3: Single-stage Decision Problems
Problem 6P
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Expected Monetary Value
Suppose that your organization is deciding which of four
projects to bid on, as summarized in the following table.
Assume that all up-front investments are not recovered, so they
are shown as negative profits. Calculate the EMV for each
project. (Be sure to show work.) Explain which projects you
would bid on. Be sure to use both the EMV information and
your personal risk tolerance to justify your answer.
Project Chance of Outcome Estimated Profits
Project 150%
$120,000
50%
$50,000
Project 2 30%
40%
30%
Project 3 70%
30%
Project 4 30%
30%
20%
20%
$100,000
$50,000
- $60,000
$20,000
$5,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$50,000
Transcribed Image Text:Expected Monetary Value Suppose that your organization is deciding which of four projects to bid on, as summarized in the following table. Assume that all up-front investments are not recovered, so they are shown as negative profits. Calculate the EMV for each project. (Be sure to show work.) Explain which projects you would bid on. Be sure to use both the EMV information and your personal risk tolerance to justify your answer. Project Chance of Outcome Estimated Profits Project 150% $120,000 50% $50,000 Project 2 30% 40% 30% Project 3 70% 30% Project 4 30% 30% 20% 20% $100,000 $50,000 - $60,000 $20,000 $5,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $50,000
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