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- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationExplain or define each of these terms:a. Laplace criterionb. Minimax regretc. Expected valued. Expected value of perfect information6- In decision making process, the worst alternative is the one which have a. More positives with less negatives b. Less positives with less negatives c. More negatives with less positives d. More positives with more negatives
- Assume that the payoff table provides cost rather than profit payoffs. What isthe recommended decision using:i. the optimistic approachii. the conservative approachiii. the minimax regret approachiv. the Laplace methodIn contract negotiations between a local government agency and its workers, it is estimated that there is a 50% chance that an agreement will be reached on the salaries of the workers. It is estimated that there is a 70% chance that there will be an agreement on the insurance benefits. There is a 20% chance that no agreement will be reached on either issue. Are the agreement on salaries (S) and the agreement on insurance (I) independent events? O not independent because P(S) P(I) # P(S and I) O independent because P(S) P(I) = P(S and I) %3D Oindependent because P(S) P(I) P(S and !)The management is faced with the problem of choosing one of the products for manufacturing. The probability matrix after market research for the two products was as follows: State of nature Acts Good Fair Poor Product 'A' 0.75 0.15 0.10 Product 'B' 0.60 0.30 0.10 The profits that the management can make for different levels of market acceptability of the products are as follows : Profit (in Rs.) if market is Acts Good Fair Poor 35,000 15,000 5,000 Product 'A' Product 'B' 50,000 20,000 Loss 3,000 Calculate expected value of the choice of alternative and advise the management.
- In Benefit/cost ratio analysis, if the salvage value is used to recover the first cost, it is being considered as: Select one: a. negative cost b. cost c. benefit d. disbenefit =================== Ali takes out a loan at 10 percent compounded annually for 7 years. At the end of this period, he pays off the loan at a value of $23,384.61. What amount did he borrow? Select one: a. $12,000.00 b. $15,000.00 c. $14,000.00 d. $13,000.00 ============= While considering the engineering economy concepts, the most important tense almost all exercises deal with is the annual worth. Select one: True False Ans all7. Consider the following decision table, which Joe Blackburn has developed for Vanderbilt Enterprises: States of Nature Decision Alternatives Probability: 0.35 0.25 0.40 Low Medium High A $35 $80 $65 B $85 $50 $70 C $55 $70 $75 D $70 $85 $65 E $70 $75 $85 Part 2 The alternative that provides Blackburn the greatest expected monetary value (EMV LOADING... ) is ▼ D E A B C The EMV for this decision is $_______(enter your answer as a whole number).The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
- DAAPS A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. 1 States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 80 10 Rent 60 45 Lease 50 40 Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision PayoffThe Decision Variables in a What If analysis provide the limitations for each variable. True FalseAn airline company has drawn up a new flight schedule involving five flights. To assist in allocating five pilots to the flights, it has asked them to state their preference scores by giving each flight a number out of 10. The higher the number, the greater is the preference. Certain of these flights are unsuitable to some pilots owing to domestic reasons. These have been marked with a -. Flight Number Pilot I II III IV V A 8 2 - 5 4 B 10 9 2 8 4 C 5 4 9 6 - D 3 6 2 8 7 E 5 6 10 4 3 What should be the allocation of the pilots to flights in order to meet as many preferences as possible?