a. What is the EVPI for Hugh Liedtke regarding Texaco's reaction to a counteroffer of $5 billion'7 Can you explain this result intuitively? b. The timing of information acquisition may make a difference. i. For example, suppose that Liedtke could obtain information about the final court decision before making his current decision (take the $2 billion or counteroffer $5 billion). What would be EVPI of this information 7 ii. Suppose that Liedtke knew he would be able to obtain perfect information only after he has made his current decision but before he would have to respond to a potential Texaco counteroffer of $3 billion. What would be EVPI in this case? c. In part b, EVPI for (ii) should be less than EVPI calculated in (i). Can you explain why? (Incidentally, if your results disagree with this, you should check your calculations!)

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Chapter16: Information, Risk, And Insurance
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1. Consider the Texaco-Pennzoil example reproduced in Figure 1.
Counteroffer
$5 Billion
Accept $2 Billion
Texaco Refuses
Counteroffer
(0.50)
Texaco
Counteroffers
$3 Billion
(0.33)
Texaco Accepts $5 Billion
(0.17)
Refuse
Final Court
Decision
Final Court
Decision
Settlement
Amount ($ Billion)
2
Accept $3 Billion
(0.2)
(0.5)
(0.3)
(0.2)
(0.5)
(0.3)
10.3
5
0
10.3
5
0
3
Figure 1: Hugh Liedtke's decision tree for the Texaco-Penzoil dispute
a. What is the EVPI for Hugh Liedtke regarding Texaco's reaction to a counteroffer of
$5 billion'7 Can you explain this result intuitively?
b. The timing of information acquisition may make a difference.
i. For example, suppose that Liedtke could obtain information about the final
court decision before making his current decision (take the $2 billion or
counteroffer $5 billion). What would be EVPI of this information 7
ii. Suppose that Liedtke knew he would be able to obtain perfect information
only after he has made his current decision but before he would have to
respond to a potential Texaco counteroffer of $3 billion. What would be EVPI
in this case?
c. In part b, EVPI for (ii) should be less than EVPI calculated in (i). Can you explain why?
(Incidentally, if your results disagree with this, you should check your calculations!)
Transcribed Image Text:1. Consider the Texaco-Pennzoil example reproduced in Figure 1. Counteroffer $5 Billion Accept $2 Billion Texaco Refuses Counteroffer (0.50) Texaco Counteroffers $3 Billion (0.33) Texaco Accepts $5 Billion (0.17) Refuse Final Court Decision Final Court Decision Settlement Amount ($ Billion) 2 Accept $3 Billion (0.2) (0.5) (0.3) (0.2) (0.5) (0.3) 10.3 5 0 10.3 5 0 3 Figure 1: Hugh Liedtke's decision tree for the Texaco-Penzoil dispute a. What is the EVPI for Hugh Liedtke regarding Texaco's reaction to a counteroffer of $5 billion'7 Can you explain this result intuitively? b. The timing of information acquisition may make a difference. i. For example, suppose that Liedtke could obtain information about the final court decision before making his current decision (take the $2 billion or counteroffer $5 billion). What would be EVPI of this information 7 ii. Suppose that Liedtke knew he would be able to obtain perfect information only after he has made his current decision but before he would have to respond to a potential Texaco counteroffer of $3 billion. What would be EVPI in this case? c. In part b, EVPI for (ii) should be less than EVPI calculated in (i). Can you explain why? (Incidentally, if your results disagree with this, you should check your calculations!)
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