. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, compute an exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 10 would be b. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, for the exponentially
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a. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, compute an exponentially smoothed
b. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, for the exponentially smoothed forecast with an α value of .20, compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) via Excel and/or POM-QM.
c. In the Bayside Fountain Hotel problem, compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with α = .20
and β = .20. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM, the forecast for the year 4 would be
d.
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- Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs as N=1,000+9X where X=timeperiod(months);January2002=0 N=monthlybedneeds Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years: Forecast Metropolitans bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007. If the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded, what seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?In the past four years, the annual returns of one company’s stockare 12%, 18%, and –14%, and 7%.a) What is the geometric average return? b) What is the arithmetic average of the returns? c) According to an economist’ forecast on the Year 2020, the probabilities of repeatingthe performances of the former four years are 30%, 30%, 20%, and 20%, respectively.What is the expected return of the stock in the Year 2020Direction: Complete the table below to find the 60h percentile for the following se of data. Data Find the position of Find P60 P=(n+ 1)th Px100 1. 20, 22, 25, 32, 35 P60 = 20-2 20122 2. 49, 50, 55, 55, 60, 67 P60 = 3. 18, 19, 20, 22, 25,27, 29, 30, 32 P60 = Direction: Read the questions carefully. Encircle the letter of the corre
- QUESTION 3 Annual Fund Returns Over the Past 10 Years Year Return (%) 4.5 6.0 1.5 -20 3 4 15 6 7 19 20 0.0 45 3.5 2.5 5.5 4.0 10 Calculate the geometric mean retur over the 10 years. Give your answer in percent, rounded to two decimal places, so in the format X.XX. Hint, the number zero is not used in the correct answerCan you explain what these two belows mean in regard of GMM and Maximum likelihood. What are we calculating and what is it used to Unconstrained optimizationConstrained optimizatioA department store is about to order deluxe, standard, and economy grade DVD players for next year's inventory. The state of the nation's economy (fate) during the year will be a factor on sales for that year. Records over the past 5 years show that if the economy is up, the store will net 4, 3, and 1 million dollars, respectively, on sales of deluxe, standard, and economy grade models; if the economy is down, the company will net – 1, 0, and 3 million dollars, respectively, on sales of deluxe, standard, and economy grade models. Complete parts A through D below. ... (A) Set up a payoff matrix for this problem. Economy (fate) Up Down Deluxe Dept. Store Standard Economy
- Sales in a company are $188 million in 2009 and increase $208 million in 2010. Compute the percentage increase in sales using the usual formula Compare this value to the approximation The approximation performs (1) percentage change increases. 100 x (1) O better (2) O deteriorates O worst O improves 100 x 100 x (Sales 2010 - Sales 2009) Sales 2009 100 x [In (Sales2010) -In (Sales2009)] (Sales 2010 - Sales2009) Sales 2009 100 x [In (Sales 2010) -In (Sales2009)] = [ (Express your response as a percentage and round to three places) Now, assume that sales in a company are $188 million in 2009 and increase $264 million in 2010. = (Sales2010 - Sales 2009) Sales 2009 % % % 100 x [In (Sales 2010) -In (Sales 2009)] = [ (Express your response as a percentage and round to three places) % when the change is small. The quality of the approximation (2). as the53. The annual demand for Prizdol, a prescription drugmanufactured and marketed by the NuFeel Company,is normally distributed with mean 50,000 and standarddeviation 12,000. Assume that demand during each ofthe next 10 years is an independent random numberfrom this distribution. NuFeel needs to determine howlarge a Prizdol plant to build to maximize its expectedprofit over the next 10 years. If the company builds aplant that can produce x units of Prizdol per year, it willcost $16 for each of these x units. NuFeel will produceonly the amount demanded each year, and each unit ofPrizdol produced will sell for $3.70. Each unit of Prizdol produced incurs a variable production cost of $0.20.It costs $0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity.a. Among the capacity levels of 30,000, 35,000,40,000, 45,000, 50,000, 55,000, and 60,000 unitsper year, which level maximizes expected profit?Use simulation to answer this question.b. Using the capacity from your answer to part a,NuFeel can be 95%…A company has established that the relationship between the sales price for one of its products and the quanlity sokld per month is approximalely p=75-0. 1D (D is the demand or quantity sold per month and p is the price in dollars). The fixed cost is $1,000 per month and the variable cost is $30 per unit produced. a. What is the maximum profit per month for this product? b. What is the range of profitable demand during a month? a. The maximum profit per month for this product is $. (Round to the nearest dollar.) b. The range of profitable demand during a month is from units to units. (Round up the lower limit and down the upper limit to the nearest whole number.)
- A global recession caused a restaurant chain's annual profits to fall. In 2018, the annual return is $ 530OK. However, it is seen that the profit declines to $386K in 2020. If the income pattern is following an exponential decay, evaluate the expected income in 2022, ) $ 212K O $ 281K ) $ 300K ) $ 294KA farmer believes there is an equal chance that the next growing season will be abnormallyrainy. His expected return function has the formExpected return = 0.5lnYNR + 0.5lnYRwhere YNR and YR represent the farmer’s income in the states of “normal rain”and “rainy,” respectively.Suppose the farmer must choose between two crops that promise the following incomeprospects:Crop YNR YRMaize $14,000 $5,000Cotton $9,500 $7,500a) Which of the crops will he plant?b) Suppose the farmer can plant half his field with each crop. Would he choose to do so?Explain your result.c) What mix of Maize and Cotton would provide maximum expected utility to this farmer?d) Would Maize crop insurance, available to farmers who grow only Maize, which costs$2,000 and pays off $4,000 in the event of a rainy growing season, cause this farmer tochange what he plants?The following table shows the total sales, in thousands, since a new game was brought to market. Month 0 2 4 9 8 10 12 14 Sales 0 2.2 5.4 9.5 19.1 27.2 32.9 35.4 (a) Plot this data and determine the point of diminishing returns. Enter the closest value in the table. The point of diminishing returns occurs i months after the game is introduced. (b) Predict total possible sales of this game, using the point of diminishing returns from the table. Total sales≈ i