Suppose Peter is trying to decide whether to put his money in a regular savings that will make 100,000 pesos in one year or in a special fund that depends on market condition over the year. If the market goes up, the special fund will make 150,000 pesos. If the market goes down, the special fund will make 50,000 pesos. a. Make a decision matrix for this problem. b. Make a decision tree for this problem c. What will a conservative (maximin) decision maker do?
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- 2. Alice believes that her car would cost £12500 to replace if it was stolen or damaged. Based on crime statistics for the area she lives in, she believes that the probability of her car being stolen or damaged is 0.15. (i) Alice's utility function is given by U(w) = ln(w) for w > 0 and she as £35000 in the bank. Calculate how much Alice would be prepared to pay (in a single payment) to insure her car against theft or damage (ii) Repeat the calculation in the previous part but now assume Alice has £500000 in the bank.4. Kate has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function U(x1,x2) = m7. She currently has $2025. a. Would she be willing to undertake a gamble that involves a gain $2875 with probability + and a loss of $1125 with probability ? Show your work and explain your answer. b. Would she be willing to undertake a gamble that involves a gain $2599 with probability and a loss of $800 with probability ? Show your work and explain your answer.As an investment advisor, you tell a client that an investment in a mutual fund has (over the next year) a higher expected return than an investment in the money market. The client then asks the following questions: a. Does that imply that the mutual fund will certainly yield a higher return than the money market? b. Does it follow that I should invest in the mutual fund rather than in the money market? How would you reply?
- At a different table, Juan wins $600 in a blackjack game. Similarly, he has to choose between $600 or the chance to play a new game. In this game, Juan has a 60% chance of winning nothing and a 40% of winning $1,000. The following graph presents the utility function of Juan with respect to money: U(w) U(w) U(1,000) U(700) U(600) U(400) 400 600 700 1,000 w 10.2.2 1.0 point possible (graded, results hidden) By how much money would his winnings need to increase or decrease so that Juan is indifferent between the $600 and the new game? (in case of an increase, insert a positive number; in case of a decrease, insert a negative number).Oliver takes $2500 with him to a camp and there is 50% chance he will lose $900 on his way. Suppose Oliver can buy an insurance policy that will totally cover his loss, what maximal amount will he be willing to pay for such insurance? Oliver’s utility function is given by the function U(E) = E0.5 where E is the amount that he spends on the camp without any saving. a. $325 b. $475 c. $650 d. $535Mary's utility function for her asset position x is given by u(x) = 4*x^ 2+ 2*x^ 1/2. Currently, Mary's assets consist of $40,000 in cash and a $15,000 home. During a given year, there is a .003 chance that Mary's office will be destroyed by fire or other causes. How much would Mary be willing to pay for an insurance policy that would replace her office if it were destroyed?
- Suppose your utility function for money is a square-root function of its value in US dollars. So, for instance, $400 is worth 20 utils for you, $961 is worth 31 utils for you, and $62.5K is worth 250 utils for you. Now, let’s say your annual salary is $90K, although there is a small risk (p = 0.05) that something catastrophic will happen and reduce your income for the year to $14.4K. An insurance company comes along and offers to insure you against the loss of your salary. The cost of the insurance is $4,736. If you buy the policy and catastrophe strikes, the insurance company will pay out the $75,600 that you would otherwise have lost. From the standpoint of maximizing expected utility, would buying this insurance be a good deal for you? What would be the insurance company’s expected monetary value of selling you the policy?Jamal has a utility function U = W1/2, where W is his wealth in millions of dollars and U is the utility he obtains from that wealth. In the final stage of a game show, the host offers Jamal a choice between (A) $4 million for sure, or (B) a gamble that pays $1 million with probability 0.6 and $9 million with probability 0.4. a. b. c. d. Graph Jamal’s utility function. Is he risk averse? Explain. (2+2) Does A or B offer Jamal a higher expected prize? Explain your reasoning with appropriate calculations. (1) Does A or B offer Jamal a higher expected utility? Explain your reasoning with calculations. (2) Should Jamal pick A or B? Why?Assume that someone has inherited 2,000 bottles of wine from a rich uncle. He or she intends to drink these bottles over the next 40 years. Suppose that this person’s utility function for wine is given by u(c(t)) = (c(t))0.5, where c(t) is each instant t consumption of bottles. Assume also this person discounts future consumption at the rate δ = 0.05. Hence this person’s goal is to maximize 0ʃ40 e–0.05tu(c(t))dt = 0ʃ40 e–0.05t(c(t))0.5dt. Let x(t) represent the number of bottle of wine remaining at time t, constrained by x(0) = 2,000, x(40) = 0 and dx(t)/dt = – c(t): the stock of remaining bottles at each instant t is decreased by the consumption of bottles at instant t. The current value Hamiltonian expression yields: H = e–0.05t(c(t))0.5 + λ(– c(t)) + x(t)(dλ/dt). This person’s wine consumption decreases at a continuous rate of ??? percent per year. The number of bottles being consumed in the 30th year is approximately ???
- Microeconomics Wilfred’s expected utility function is px1^0.5+(1−p)x2^0.5, where p is the probability that he consumes x1 and 1 - p is the probability that he consumes x2. Wilfred is offered a choice between getting a sure payment of $Z or a lottery in which he receives $2500 with probability p = 0.4 and $3700 with probability 1 - p. Wilfred will choose the sure payment if Z > CE and the lottery if Z < CE, where the value of CE is equal to ___ (please round your final answer to two decimal places if necessary)1. Alizeh and Kelly were traveling together and have gotten stranded at an airport overnight. They have no cash, but they did both think to bring granola bars and turkey sandwiches with them. They currently each have several granola bars and a few sandwiches. Alizeh announces that she'd be willing to give up a granola bar for one turkey sandwich. Kelly responds that turkey sandwiches are bigger than granola bars so she would be willing to give up a granola bar if she could get half a turkey sandwich. Is Kelly and Alizeh's current allocation of granola bars and turkey sandwiches efficient? Explain why or why not. (Note that you cannot rely on a rule here – you have to specifically explain why the allocation does or does not meet the definition of an efficient allocation.)3) Consider the following two gambles: Option A: you win $50 with probability 0.75 and lose $100 with probability 0.25. Option B: You win $100 with probability 0.25 and lose $50 with probability 0.75. Which option is preferred according to expected utility if i) You use an exponential utility function with R=5 ii) You use an exponential utility function with R=10 iii) You use an exponential utility function with R=100 iv) You use an exponential utility function with R=1000 v) You use an exponential utility function with R=10,000