The sensitivity of two parameters (P and n) for one project is evaluated by graphing the AW values versus percentage variation from the most likelyestimates. The curve for n has a slope very close to zero, while the P curve has a significant negative slope. One good conclusion from the graph is that:a. both PW and AW values are more sensitive to variations in P than n.b. the project should be rejected, since AW values vary with P and n.c. a better estimate of P needs to be made.d. the ROR is equally sensitive for both parameters.
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The sensitivity of two parameters (P and n) for one project is evaluated by graphing the AW values versus percentage variation from the most likely
estimates. The curve for n has a slope very close to zero, while the P curve has a significant negative slope. One good conclusion from the graph is that:
a. both PW and AW values are more sensitive to variations in P than n.
b. the project should be rejected, since AW values vary with P and n.
c. a better estimate of P needs to be made.
d. the ROR is equally sensitive for both parameters.
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- 7. Consider the following decision table, which Joe Blackburn has developed for Vanderbilt Enterprises: States of Nature Decision Alternatives Probability: 0.35 0.25 0.40 Low Medium High A $35 $80 $65 B $85 $50 $70 C $55 $70 $75 D $70 $85 $65 E $70 $75 $85 Part 2 The alternative that provides Blackburn the greatest expected monetary value (EMV LOADING... ) is ▼ D E A B C The EMV for this decision is $_______(enter your answer as a whole number).The management is faced with the problem of choosing one of the products for manufacturing. The probability matrix after market research for the two products was as follows: State of nature Acts Good Fair Poor Product 'A' 0.75 0.15 0.10 Product 'B' 0.60 0.30 0.10 The profits that the management can make for different levels of market acceptability of the products are as follows : Profit (in Rs.) if market is Acts Good Fair Poor 35,000 15,000 5,000 Product 'A' Product 'B' 50,000 20,000 Loss 3,000 Calculate expected value of the choice of alternative and advise the management.At a hydrocarbon processing factory, process control involves periodic analysis of samples for a certain process quality parameter. The analytic procedure currently used is costly and time consuming. A faster and more economical alternative procedure has been proposed. However, the numbers for the quality parameter given by the alternative procedure are somewhat different from those given by the current procedure, not because of any inherent errors but because of changes in the nature of the chemical analysis. Management believes that if the numbers from the new procedure can be used to forecast reliably the corresponding numbers from the current procedure, switching to the new procedure would be reasonable and cost effective. The following data were obtained for the quality parameter by analyzing samples using both procedures: Current (Y) 2.8 Current (Y) ITTT Proposed (X) 3.2 Proposed (X) 3.1 3.1 3.7 38 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5…
- Refer to Problems 1 and 2. Construct a graph that will enable you to perform sensitivity analysis on the problem. Over what range of P(high) would the alternative of doing nothing be best? Expand? Subcontract?At a hydrocarbon processing factory, process control involves periodic analysis of samples for a certain process quality parameter. The analytic procedure currently used is costly and time consuming. A faster and more economical alternative procedure has been proposed. However, the numbers for the quality parameter given by the alternative procedure are somewhat different from those given by the current procedure, not because of any inherent errors but because of changes in the nature of the chemical analysis. Management believes that if the numbers from the new procedure can be used to forecast reliably the corresponding numbers from the current procedure, switching to the new procedure would be reasonable and cost effective. The following data were obtained for the quality parameter by analyzing samples using both procedures: TTTT Current (Y) Proposed (X) 3.2 Current (Y) Proposed (X) 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.8 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5…At a hydrocarbon processing factory, process control involves periodic analysis of samples for a certain process quality parameter. The analytic procedure currently used is costly and time consuming. A faster and more economical alternative procedure has been proposed. However, the numbers for the quality parameter given by the alternative procedure are somewhat different from those given by the current procedure, not because of any inherent errors but because of changes in the nature of the chemical analysis. Management believes that if the numbers from the new procedure can be used to forecast reliably the corresponding numbers from the current procedure, switching to the new procedure would be reasonable and cost effective. The following data were obtained for the quality parameter by analyzing samples using both procedures: Current (Y) 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.0 2.7 3.1 Proposed (X) 3.0 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.7 Current (Y) 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.1 3.2 2.8 The increases in X mostly result in how…
- At a hydrocarbon processing factory, process control involves periodic analysis of samples for a certain process quality parameter. The analytic procedure currently used is costly and time consuming. A faster and more economical alternative procedure has been proposed. However, the numbers for the quality parameter given by the alternative procedure are somewhat different from those given by the current procedure, not because of any inherent errors but because of changes in the nature of the chemical analysis. Management believes that if the numbers from the new procedure can be used to forecast reliably the corresponding numbers from the current procedure, switching to the new procedure would be reasonable and cost effective. The following data were obtained for the quality parameter by analyzing samples using both procedures: TTTT Current (Y) Proposed (X) 3.2 Current (Y) 3.1 Proposed (X) 3.1 2.8 3.7 3.8 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.4 4.0 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5…Sun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…What is it to say that it can lead to better contact between managers for successful variance analysis?
- OPERATIONS RESEARCH TWO Sakala is interested in developing and marketing a new drug. The cost of extensive research to develop the drug would be K100,000. The manager of research programme said that there is 60% chance that the drug will be developed successfully. The market potential is assessed as follows with present value of profit: Market conditions Probability Present value of profits (K) Large market potential 0.1 500,000 Moderate market potential 0.6 220,000 Low market potential 0.3 80,000 The present value figures do not include the cost of research. While Mr. Sakala was considering this proposal, another similar proposal came up which also required the investment of K100,000 .The present value of profit for the second proposal wasK120,000. The return on the investment in the second proposal is almost certain. Draw a decision tree for Mr. Sakala indicating all choices and events What decision Mr. Sakala should take regarding the…Calculate the expected value and standard deviation for the following distribution: a 10% chance of a massive project success, with profits of $1 million; a 65% chance of moderate project success, with profits of $100,000, and a 25% chance of the project bombing, with losses of -$200,000.The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision Alternative State of Nature $1 d₁ d₂ (a) Suppose P(s₁) = 0.2 and P(5₂) = 0.8. What is the best decision using the expected value approach? The best decision is --?-- with an expected value of 12 $₂ 6 3 5 (b) Perform sensitivity analysis on the payoffs for decision alternative d₂. Assume the probabilities are as given in part (a), and find the range of payoffs under states of natures, and so that will keep the solution found in part (a) optimal. As long as the payoff for s₁ under d₁ is --?-- , then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. As long as the payoff for s₂ under d₁ is --?-- Is the solution more sensitive to the payoff under state of nature s₁ or 5₂? O $₁ 0 5₂