Professor Shethinks Shesverybusy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so she needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The professor has gathered the following time series data recently: Period Student Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 weeks ago 65 Last week 50 What is this week's forecast for student appointments using a three-week moving average? Oa. 52 Ob. 80 O.65 d. 78 e. 50

Professor Shethinks Shesverybusy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so she needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The professor has gathered the following time series data recently: Period Student Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 weeks ago 65 Last week 50 What is this week's forecast for student appointments using a three-week moving average? Oa. 52 Ob. 80 O.65 d. 78 e. 50

Contemporary Marketing

18th Edition

ISBN:9780357033777

Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Publisher:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Chapter14: Pricing Strategies

Section14.2: Forecasting Demand

Problem 1LO

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
6. Tutoring Center needs to allocate tutors this week for office appointments, so it needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently: Time Period Code Student Appointments Jan 6 - 10 1 95 Jan 13 - 17 2 80 Jan 20 - 24 3 65 Jan 27 - 31 4 50 a) What is the naïve forecast for the number of student appointments for Time Period 5 (Feb 3 – 7)? b) What is the 2 week moving average for Time Period 5? c) What is the 3 week moving average for Time Period 5? d) What is the forecast for Time Period 5 using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and a forecast 90 for Time Period 3? e) Is demand for appointments increasing or decreasing?
Naïve method versus three period Moving Average The number of major plumbing repair jobs performed by Augur’s Plumbing Service in each of the last six months is listed below. Month Jobs October 92 November 94 December 98 January 95 February 99 March 104 Use the ‘textbook’ naïve method to forecast April jobs (Ft+1 = Xt + (Xt – Xt-1). Use the three- period moving average to forecast jobs in April Based upon the MAD (mean absolute deviation), determine whether the three-period moving average or textbook naïve method is more accurate, based upon forecasts for January through March.
1. United Dairies, Ic., supplies milk to several independent grocers throughout Dade County, Florida. Managers at United Dairies want to develop a forecast of the number of half gallons of milk sold per week. Sales data for the past 12 weeks are: week Sales week sales 1 2750 3300 2 3100 8 3100 3250 2950 4 2800 3000 10 2900 11 3200 3050 12 3150 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare a two-week moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.4, which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? c. Create a linear trend projection model to make a sales forecast and evaluate the accuracy of the sales forecast. d. Based on the results, which is the best forecasting model to be used to forecast the 13th week sales?
Home-Style Cookies tracks monthly sales by type of cookie, see the following table. Month Chocolate Chip (000 units) Peanut Butter (000 units) Filled (000 units) Feb. 19 15 10 Mar. 18 14 9 Apr. 15 11 8 May 20 16 11 Jun. 18 14 10 Jul. 22 18 12 Aug. 20 16 10 Sep. Create a line chart in Excel showing monthly sales by type of cookies (each type will have its own line); then, forecast September sales volume for chocolate chip cookies using each of the following: the naïve approach; a 5-month moving average; a weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June; and a linear trend equation.
4.33 Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclone mountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table. First, co-owner Bob Day wants to forecast by exponential smoothing by initially setting February's forecast equal to January's sales with a = .1. Co-owner Sherry Snyder wants to use a three-period moving average. %3D BOB'S ERROR SHERRY'S ERROR SALES BOB SHERRY JANUARY 400 FEBRUARY 380 400 MARCH 410 APRIL 375 MAY a) Is there a strong linear trend in sales over time? b) Fill in the table with what Bob and Sherry each forecast for May and the earlier months, as relevant. c) Assume that May's actual sales figure turns out to be 405. Complete the table's columns and then calculate the mean absolute deviation for both Bob's and Sherry's methods. d) Based on these calculations, which method seems more accurate? PX
There is a bias towards under forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not O There is a severe bias towards under forecasting O Bias is negligible in this case Question 22 A MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) of 17.3 suggests which of the following? O There is an over-forecasting bias of 17.3 O The standard deviation for the forecast data is 17.3 O All forecasts fall within 17.3 of the actual data O On average, the forecasts miss by 17.3 O Without knowing the average, the MAD is useless 0 日

In the Atlanta area, the number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy copy machines has been recorded as follows: October Calls 1 92 2 127 3 106 4 165 5 125 6 111 7 178 8 97 Prepare a three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4-8. What is the error on each day? Prepare a three-period weighted moving average forecast for periods 4-8 using weights of w1=.5, w2=.3, w3=.2 Which of the two forecasts is better? (Use CFE to calculate the better method)
Professor Shethinks Shesverybusy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so she needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The professor has gathered the following time series data recently: Period Student Appointments 4 weeks ago 3 weeks ago 95 80 2 weeks ago 65 Last week 50 What would be this week's forecast for student appointments using exponential smoothing with alpha of 0.2, if the forecast for two weeks ago was 90? Oa. 52 b. 85 c. 78 d. 65 e. 50
Forecast is calculating estimates of future cycle/s based on data of past cycles -- there is no What? time interval in forecasting
Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant (α) of 0.30 and a starting forecast of 415.00, the following sales forecast has been developed: Year Sales Forecasted Sales 2005 455 415.00 2006 502 427.00 2007 518 449.50 2008 563 470.05 2009 584 497.94 Part 2 The MAD for a forecast developed using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 is enter your response here sales (round your response to two decimal places). Part 3 Forecasted sales for years 2006 through 2010 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.60 and a starting forecast of 415.00 are (round your responses to two decimal places): Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Forecasted Sales 415.00 enter your response here enter…
14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places) 15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places) 16