Person D is offered a the same game, for a price of £1.8. They decide are indifferent between participating in the game and not participating. What can be inferred about their risk preference and the shape of their utility function? You will only receive marks for this question if you tick all correct solutions and do not tick any wrong solutions. risk averse; concave risk averse; convex risk neutral; flat risk neutral; linear risk loving, convex risk loving, concave
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- 2. Consider a cheap talk game in which Nature moves by choosing a sender's type, where the type space has four elements: −1, 1, 2, and 3, each occur- ring with equal probability of 1½. The sender learns his type and chooses one of three possible messages: bumpy, smooth, and slick. The receiver observes the sender's message and then chooses one of three actions: 0, 5, and 10. The sender's payoff equals his type multiplied by the receiver's action. The receiver's payoff equals the sender's type multiplied by twice the receiver's payoff. a. Find a separating perfect Bayes-Nash equilibrium. b. Find a semiseparating perfect Bayes-Nash equilibrium.a Suppose you are given a choice between thefollowing options:A1: Win $30 for sureA2: 80% chance of winning $45 and 20% chance ofA2: winning nothing B1: 25% chance of winning $30B2: 20% chance of winning $45Most people prefer A1 to A2 and B2 to B1. Explainwhy this behavior violates the assumption that decisionmakers maximize expected utility.b Now suppose you play the following game: You havea 75% chance of winning nothing and a 25% chance ofplaying the second stage of the game. If you reach thesecond stage, you have a choice of two options (C1 andC2), but your choice must be made now, before youreach the second stage.C1: Win $30 for sureC2: 80% chance of winning $45 13.5 Bayes’ Rule and Decision Trees 767Most people choose C1 over C2 and B2 to B1 (from part(a)). Explain why this again violates the assumption ofexpected utility maximization. Tversky and Kahneman(1981) speculate that most people are attracted to thesure $30 in the second stage, even though the secondstage may never be…2. Consider the following Bayesian game with two players. Both players move simultaneously and player 1 can choose either H or L, while player 2's options are G, M, and D. With probability 1/2 the payoffs are given by "Game 1" : GMD H 1,2 1,0 1,3 L 2,4 0,0 0,5 and with probability 1/2 the payoffs are according to "Game 2" : G |M|D H 1,2 1,3 1,0 L 2,4 0,5 0,0 (a) Find the Nash Equilibria when neither player knows which game is actually played. (b) Assume now that player 2 knows which one among the two games is actually being played. Check that the game has a unique Bayesian Nash Equilibrium.
- Suppose that the University of Alabama and Clemson are making spending decisions for theupcoming year. Assume that Alabama is currently spending $15 million on their recruiting andfacilities, and Clemson is spending $10 million. Each team has an additional $5 million to spendor keep as profits. If they both choose to not spend the additional $5 million then Alabama hasa 60% chance of getting the highest quality quarterback recruit to commit to them (getting thecommitment of the player is the goal). However, if they both choose to spend the additional $5million then there is a 57% chance that Alabama gets the high quality quarterback to commit. IfAlabama spends the additional $5 million but Clemson doesn’t then there is a 67% chanceAlabama gets the recruit. However, if Alabama does NOT spend the additional $5million butClemson does then there is a 50% change either team gets the recruit’s commitment. Setup thepayoff matrix and label the players, their strategies, and their payoffs, and…Exercise 6.8. Consider the following extensive-form game with cardinal payoffs: 1 R O player pay 000 2 1 M 3 b 010 O player 3's payoff 1 2 221 2 000 0 0 (a) Find all the pure-strategy Nash equilibria. Which ones are also subgame perfect? (b) [This is a more challenging question] Prove that there is no mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium where Player 1 plays Mwith probability strictly between 0 and 1.1. A woman with current wealth X has the opportunity to bet an amount on the o ccurrence of an event that she knows will occur with probability P. If she wager s W, she will received 2W, if the event occur and if it does not. Assume that t he Bernoulli utility function takes the form u(x) = -e-TX with r> 0. How much should she wager? Does her utility function exhibit CARA, DARA, IARA?
- Assuming you are risk neutral, frast answer the folowing two questions about your preferences: Scenario A: You are given $5.000 and offered a choice beheeen receiving an extra $2.500 with certainty or fipping a coin and getting $5.000 t heads or S0 if tain. Which option do you prefer? A The certain $2.500 is more valuable than the uncertain $5.000, I would choose the $2.500 Both options have identical payofs, so l am indiferent between the two options. The possibility of the 5.000 payoff is more valuable to me than the oertain $2.500, I chocse to fio a coin Scenario B. You are given $10.000 f you wil make the following choice: retum $2.500 or fip a coin and retum $5.000 heads and so tai. Which opton do you prefer? A The certain los of S$2.500 is more paintu than the possible loss of $5,000, I choose to fip a coin. OR The ponsibility of the los of $5.000 is more paintul to me than the certain los of $2.500, I would choose the $2.500 certan loss re Both options have identical payoffs, so…In the final round of a TV game show, contestantshave a chance to increase their current winnings of$1 million to $2 million. If they are wrong, theirprize is decreased to $500,000. A contestant thinkshis guess will be right 50% of the time. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correctguess that would make playing profitable?Clancy has $4800. He plans to bet on a boxing match betweenSullivan and Flanagan. He finds that he can buy coupons for $6 thatwill pay off $10 each if Sullivan wins. He also finds in another storesome coupons that will pay off $10 if Flanagan wins. The Flanagantickets cost $4 each. Clancy believes that the two fighters each have aprobability of ½ of winning. Clancy is a risk averter who tries tomaximize the expected value of the natural log of his wealth. Whichof the following strategies would maximize his expected utility? (a) Don’t Gamble (b) Buy 400 S tickets and 600 F tickets(c) Buy exactly as many F tickets and S tickets (d) Buy 200 S and 300 F(e) Buy 200 S and 600 F
- Charles is participating in an experiment. His payoff in the experiment is tied to his effort e doing a mundane task. There is also some risk involved by design-there is a chance p that Charles is going to get a fixed payment L regardless of his effort. Charles' payoff is thus: with probability p w.e with probability 1- p Charles has to pay a cost C, which increases with his effort. First, let us assume that Charles' utility is the expected payoff net of this cost: U(e) = pL + (1 – p)we – c(e) Derive the first order condition with respect to e. b. How doesp affect Charles' effort e? c. How does L affect e?Bob is playing 1/4 L + 3/4 R. What is Ann's expected payoff of playing D? Game Bob L RAnn U 10,-1 0, 1 D 4, 1 8, -1Consider a setting in which player 1 moves first by choosing among threeactions: a, b, and c. After observing the choice of player 1, player 2 choosesamong two actions: x and y. Consider the following three variants as towhat player 3 can do and what she knows when she moves:a. If player 1 chose a, then player 3 selects among two actions: high andlow. Player 3 knows player 2’s choice when she moves. Write down theextensive form of this setting. (You can ignore payoffs.)b. If player 1 chose a, then player 3 selects among two actions: high andlow. Player 3 does not know player 2’s choice when she moves. Writedown the extensive form of this setting. (You can ignore payoffs.)c. If player 1 chose either a or b, then player 3 selects among two actions: high and low. Player 3 observes the choice of player 2, but not that of player 1. Write down the extensive form of this setting.(You can ignore payoffs.)