Months 1 2 3 14 885 Using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant of 0.14, forecast the number of customers for Month 5. (round to nearest whole number) O 779 920 830 Number of Customers O 1005 750 1920 810 1144
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- The US. import of wine (in hectoliters) for several years is given in Table 5. Determine whether the trend appearslinear. Ifso, and assuming the trend continues, in what year will imports exceed 12,000 hectoliters?The forecast with out seasonality is modeled as: Sales = 6 * t + 236.00, where t= time in months, beginning in January 2015. Seasonality for the first three months are given in the table below. Determine a seasonalized forecast for Feb of 2016. Month Seasonal Factor January 1.9000 February 0.6262 March 0.1000 Submit Answer format: Number: Round to: 1 decimal places. What value with the season index that is created for the 12 months of the year add up to? Submit Answer format: Number: Round to: 0 decimal places.Using Excel, run descriptive analysis for the first 12 months, the next 12 months, etc., on the dataset. Determine the 12 period moving average forecasts and the simple exponential smoothing forecasts (α = 0.05) based on the data. The mathematical formulas for these forecasting techniques are as follows. N period Moving Average Forecast (for next period) = (Sum of Actuals for N number of previous periods) / N. Note: For this assignment, assume N=12. Simple Exponential Smoothing Forecast (for next period) = Previous Period Forecast + (α * (Previous Period Actual - Previous Period Forecast)). Note: For this assignment, assume α = 0.05. For the Period 1, assume that the Forecast is the same as the Actual.value. Mean Absolute %Error = Average of: ((|Actual - Forecast|) / Actual )) for all periods where Actuals and Forecasts exist. Create a line chart for each forecast and ensure that each line chart also contains the historical dataset. Compute the mean absolute percentage error for each…
- The number N of locations of a popular coffeehouse chain is given in the table. (The numbers of locations as of October 1 are given.) Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8570 10,245 12,436 15,013 16,676 (a) Find the average rate of growth between each pair of years. 2004 to 2006 locations/year 2006 to 2007 locations/year 2005 to 2006 locations/yearExample: Emergency call to the fire department over the past 15 weeks are the following: 20, 27, 25, 22, 18, 21, 26, 19, 16, 28, 25, 26, 17, 23, 27 Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.5 to forecast the number of the calls for the next week. Solution: No, of Calls (At) Forecast (Actual time] Week (Ft) 20 2 27 3. 25 22 18 21 7 26 8. 19 6. 16 10 28 11 25 12 26 13 17 14 23 15 27 Find F16. Ft-1 + a(At-1- Ft-1) %3D | Forecast = previous forecast + a(Actual previous period - previous forecast) Put F1 = A1 = 20 %3D F2 = F, + a(A, - F,) = 20 +0.5(20-20) = 20 F3 = 23.5 %3D6/10 Complete the table below.
- problen 1.4A trader buys an April futures contract on the VIX when the futures price is 18.3 and closes out the contract when the futures price is 19. Each contract is on 1,000 times the index. What is the gain of the trader? (required precision 0.01 +/- 0.01)Month September October November KWPH 115 151 164 Consumption (K) Amount Due 1,216.85 1,697.22 1,903.84 Based on the table, what is the constant variation (K)?
- The number N of locations of a popular coffeehouse chain is given in the table. (The numbers of locations as of October 1 are given.) Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8567 10,244 12,441 15,011 16,683 (a) Find the average rate of growth between each pair of years. 2004 to 2006 locations/year 2006 to 2007 locations/year 2005 to 2006 locations/year (b) Estimate the instantaneous rate of growth in 2006 by taking the average of the last two rates of change in part (a). locations/year (c) Estimate the instantaneous rate of growth in 2006 by measuring the slope of the secant line through (2005, 10244) and (2007, 15011). locations/year (d) Estimate the instantaneous rate of growth in 2007 by measuring the slope of the secant line through (2006, 12441) and (2008, 16683). locations/year Compare the growth rates you obtained in part (c) and (d). What can you conclude? O The rate of growth is decreasing. There is not enough information. The rate of growth is constant. The rate of growth is…. If a startup churns 5.6% of its customers each month, then what is the average lifetime of a customer in months? 15.9 (rounded) 17.9 (rounded) 19.9 (rounded)The numbers of polio cases in the world are shown in the table for various years. Year Number of Polio Cases (thousands) 1988 350 1992 138 1996 31 2000 6 2005 3.2 2007 1.3 Let f(t) be the number of polio cases in thousands t years since 1980. Use a graphing calculator to draw a scattergram of the data. Is it better to model the data by using a linear or exponential model? | Select an answer Find an equation of f. Hint f(t) Round the coefficients to 4 decimal places. The number of polio cases is | Select an answer by Select an answer per year. Predict the number of polio cases in 2013. Hint Predict in which year there will be 1 case of polio. Hint Find the approximate half-life of the number of polio cases. Hint years