Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling Products, which produces a variety of specialty Valves for oil equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has caused demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location. Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the total monthly cost (in $1,000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand. Demand is low Demand is medium Demand is High Ardmore, Ok 85 110 150 Sweetwater, Tx 90 100 120 lake Charles, LA 110 120 130 (a) Which location would be selected based on the optimistic criterion? (b) Which location would be selected based on the pessimistic criterion? (f) Which location would minimize the expected opportunity loss? (g) What is the expected value of perfect information in thissituation?

Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling Products, which produces a variety of specialty Valves for oil equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has caused demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location. Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the total monthly cost (in $1,000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand. Demand is low Demand is medium Demand is High Ardmore, Ok 85 110 150 Sweetwater, Tx 90 100 120 lake Charles, LA 110 120 130 (a) Which location would be selected based on the optimistic criterion? (b) Which location would be selected based on the pessimistic criterion? (f) Which location would minimize the expected opportunity loss? (g) What is the expected value of perfect information in thissituation?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter6: Optimization Models With Integer Variables

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 100P

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Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling products which produces a variety of especially valves for oil field equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has cause demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered, and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The folowing table gives the total monthly cost (in 1000s) for each possible location under each demand posibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand Demand is Low Demand is medium Demand is High Ardmore, OK 85 110 150 Sweetwater, TX 90 100 120 Lake Charles, LA 110 120 130 (a) Which location would be selected based on the optimistic criterion? (b) which location would be selected based on the pessimistic criterion? (c) which location would be selected based on the…
Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling products which produces a variety of especially valves for oil field equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has cause demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered, and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the total monthly cost (in 1000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand Demand is Low Demand is medium Demand is High Ardmore, OK 85 110 150 Sweetwater, TX 90 100 120 Lake Charles, LA 110 120 130 How much is a perfect forecast of the demand worth?
Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling products which produces a variety of especially valves for oil field equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has cause demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered, and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the total monthly cost (in 1000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand Demand is Low Demand is medium Demand is High Ardmore, OK 85 110 150 Sweetwater, TX 90 100 120 Lake Charles, LA 110 120 130 which location should be selected to minimize the expected cost of operation? How much is a perfect forecast of the demand worth? which location would…
Mick Karra is the manager of MCZ Drilling products which produces a variety of especially valves for oil field equipment. Recent activity in the oil fields has cause demand to increase drastically, and a decision has been made to open a new manufacturing facility. Three locations are being considered, and the size of the facility would not be the same in each location Thus, overtime might be necessary at times. The following table gives the total monthly cost (in 1000s) for each possible location under each demand possibility. The probabilities for the demand levels have been determined to be 20% for low demand, 30% for medium demand, and 50% for high demand Demand is Low Demand is medium Demand is High Ardmore, OK 85 110 150 Sweetwater, TX 90 100 120 Lake Charles, LA 110 120 130 which location would minimize the expected opportunity loss?
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Niue Vanilla has had two successive years in which the Vanilla bean harvest has stretched the firm’s capacity within their drying sheds. Pita, the manger for the drying operation must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the three possible states of nature are as shown in the table below, along with 3 possible alternatives he is considering: Do Nothing, Expand the Drying Shed operation, or Subcontract to a local farmer group who can do some of the drying. Suppose after a certain amount of discussion, Pita is able to subjectively assess the probabilities of low, medium and high demand: P(low) = 0.2, P(Medium) = 0.35 and P(high) = 0.45 Determine the expected profit of each alternative. Which alternative is best? Why? Analyse the problem using a decision tree. Show the expected profit of each alternative on the tree.
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