You work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon-itoring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample ofquarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singaporedollars), Yt, t =1990.1,2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption....trend model, Yt = Bo + B1TIME + Et, where & ~iidN(0, o²), obtain-ing the estimates Bo = 0.51, B12.30, and ô?16. Based upon yourestimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and densityforecasts for 2010.1.a Find the exact value of the point forecast2010.01.b Provide the distribution of the density forecast at 2010.01.c Provide interval forecasts for 68% and 90% confidence levels.

Timet (2010.1) = (2010 - 1900)x 4 = 80 Point Estimate = b0 + b1 Timet = 0.51 + 2.30*80= 184.51…

lou work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon- toring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore lollars), Yt, t : rend model, yt = Bo + B1TIME; + Et, 1990.1, ..., 2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption iidN(0, o²), obtain- where & ng the estimates Bo = 0.51, ß1 = 2.30, and ô² 16. Based upon your stimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density

lou work for the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, mon- toring Singapore's real consumption expenditures. Using a sample of quarterly real consumption data (measured in billions of 2005 Singapore lollars), Yt, t : rend model, yt = Bo + B1TIME; + Et, 1990.1, ..., 2006.4, you estimate the linear consumption iidN(0, o²), obtain- where & ng the estimates Bo = 0.51, ß1 = 2.30, and ô² 16. Based upon your stimated trend model, construct feasible point, interval and density

Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies and Tactics (MindTap Course List)

14th Edition

ISBN:9781305506381

Author:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris

Publisher:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris

Chapter5: Business And Economic Forecasting

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.4CE

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