Justify exponential smoothing's superiority to moving averages as a forecasting method
Q: How do exponential smoothing advantages have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?
A: The advantages of exponential smoothing as a forecasting method over operating averages are as…
Q: involve
A: The answer to this question is true.
Q: formula refers Naive Forecast method. O a. Forecast value for the current period = Last
A: To compute a naïve forecast just require the earlier month of sales and plug it in close to the…
Q: he formula of exponential smoothing method of forecastin
A: Exponential smoothing is a time series forecasting method for univariate data. Exponential smoothing…
Q: Week Passengers 440 11 446 12 451 13 455 14 464 15 996 474 17 476 18 482 a. Explain why an averaging…
A: After observing the data, we can see that there is an upward increasing trend. In case the average…
Q: Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a =…
A: Given data is Alpha = 0.4 Forecast for year 1 = 6
Q: a. Using a simple three-month moving average, make a forecast for this month. (Round your answer to…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting the future demand according to past data and demand.
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: Several assumptions are made during the Time Series Initial Phase.
Q: Explain what us qualitative forecasting model and when should it be used
A: Qualitative approach is a way of evaluation based on subject specialists and not on numeric…
Q: Give three example of unethical conduct involving forecasting and the ethical principle each…
A: Deceptive conduct is an activity that falls outside of what is considered ethically right or…
Q: It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in…
A: As there are multiple questions posted, as per policy will answer the first question only. If you…
Q: Which of the following is used to describe the degree of forecast error? a. Median and Mode b. Mean…
A: Mean absolute percent error is the method to describe the degree of relationship between errors for…
Q: Describe and evaluate the method of forecasting based on a time series analysis when a trend is…
A: Forecasting is the practice of estimating the size of unknown future events and generating different…
Q: Explain why forecasts are generally wrong.
A: Forecasting is used to predict future changes or demand patterns.
Q: State and explain three methods that are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting…
A: To be determined: three methods that are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting…
Q: Explain what assumptions do qualitative forecasting systems make
A: Qualitative prediction systems make the following assumptions:
Q: a. Solve for the forecast equation. b. Forecast the four quarters of year 5.
A: Operations management is a branch of management in which the production process and service of the…
Q: e least-squares regression method, the trend equation for forecasting is
A: Least square regression equation helps to identify the value of depending variable based on the…
Q: Employing a 4 period moving average, forecast periods 5-8 and determine the forecast error (round 2…
A: 4 Period Moving Average forecast = sum of the actual demand of last 4 periods / 4…
Q: What does the term biased mean in reference to a particular forecasting technique?
A: The forecasting techniques are used for predicting the future demand and sales of the product. The…
Q: Is there anything that can be done to boost the Forecast technique
A: Forecasting is a technique for forecasting potential demand, assessing risk, and analysing patterns.…
Q: a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. b) Use a 3-week…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating the future demand according to previous or historic…
Q: Which of the following concepts explain why we tend to make errors in affective forecasting?
A: Affective forecasting refers to the prediction of future events on the basis of a current emotion.
Q: Explain what are the benefits of exponential smoothing over moving average forecasting
A: The table below gives a prediction of the advantages of moving average over exponential smoothing.
Q: Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88, 90…
A:
Q: (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.15, assuming a March forecast of…
A: Given data-
Q: What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained…
A: Forecasting is technique which uses past data in order to predict future trends. It is mainly used…
Q: Accuracy of forecasts. The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose…
A: Given data, Assume that each forecast has an average error of zero. Forecast Month…
Q: Explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting. How areseasonal patterns different from…
A: Forecasting can be defined as the way or a process of making predictions based on past events or…
Q: exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19(00).
A: To find Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of…
Q: State the assumptions made when using a time series forecasting techniques
A: Numerous estimates are taken in statistical analysis.
Q: You have a data set that includes time period and past sales data, and you want to use a time series…
A: Ans// D) Weighted moving average Time series forecasting makes the prediction about the future by…
Q: Types of Forecasts that might be needed in IKEA
A: Let’s first understand the meaning of Forecasting and types of Forecasting. Forecasting can be…
Q: The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose between two alternative…
A: Both techniques have been used to prepare forecasts for a six month period as follows:
Q: Justify the trade-off between responsiveness and consistency in a time-series forecasting system.
A: TradeoffTradeoff is a situational decision taken approach, that involves diminishing quality,…
Q: All the following are techniques used in quantitative forecasting except. A. Regression analysis B.…
A: Forecasting refers to the approach of making predictions on the basis of present and past…
Q: Which time-series forecasting method works best if the company assumes that product demand will…
A: Forecasts are a basic input in the decision processes of operations management because they provide…
Q: mon forecasting techniques.
A: It is possible to describe forecasting as a method of making predictions about the future based on…
Q: Forecasts are generally wrong.a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?b. Explain the term “wrong” as it…
A: Forecasting generally means predicting or estimating something for future events. It is also about…
Q: F1 = F, + a(D, – F,) MA3 = (D1+D2+D3)/3 1+1 Week Calls МАЗ ES Squared Errors with MA3 Squared Errors…
A: 1) The 3-period moving average forecast can be determined in excel as follows: Thus, the forecast…
Q: (3) A weighted average using.60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June (4) Exponential smoothing…
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: . What is the mean square error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method?…
A: I am using the 2 periods simple moving average method to find average forecasts. It is the average…
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as apposed to…
A: Time series forecasting fundamental assumptions:
Q: A)- Explain the calculation method for the Naive Forecast model. B) If at the end of every month…
A: Forecasting the values in advance helps to reduce the cost, and increase profits by reducing wastage…
Q: Describe why such forecasting devices as moving average , weighted averages and exponential…
A: To be determined: why such forecasting devices as moving average , weighted averages and…
Q: a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12.
A: Since you have asked multiple questions, we will solve the first question for you. If you want any…
Justify exponential smoothing's superiority to moving averages as a
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?How do exponential smoothing advantages have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?How is exponential smoothing superior to moving averages as a forecasting tool?