Gamers Empire is considering marketing one of two new video games for the coming holiday season: Aliens Kidnapped My Dog or Ninjas vs. Pirates. Aliens Kidnapped My Dog does not appear to have any competition as it is a unique game. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) under high, medium and low demand are as follows: Demand Aliens Kidnapped My Dog High Medium Low Profit $1100 $800 $400 Probability 0.3 0.4 0.3 Gamers Empire is optimistic about Ninjas vs. Pirates. However, the concern is that profitability will be affect by their competitor Samurai Games releasing a similar title called Samurai vs. Robots. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) with and without competition are as follows: Demand Ninjas vs. Pirates with competition High Medium Low Profit $900 $500 $300 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.4 Ninjas vs. Pirates without competition Profit $1700 $900 $500 Probability 0.5 0.2 0.3 a) Construct a decision tree. b) Calculate the EMVs and state your decision if there is a 75% probability that Samurai vs. Robots will be released. c) If the probability that Samurai Games will release their game Samurai vs. Robots changes from 75% to 65% what are the new EMVs? Does this change your decision?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 30P
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Gamers Empire is considering marketing one of two new video games for the coming holiday season: Aliens Kidnapped My Dog or Ninjas vs. Pirates. Aliens Kidnapped My Dog does not appear to have any competition as it is a unique game. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) under high, medium and low demand are as follows: Demand Aliens Kidnapped My Dog High Medium Low Profit $1100 $800 $400 Probability 0.3 0.4 0.3 Gamers Empire is optimistic about Ninjas vs. Pirates. However, the concern is that profitability will be affect by their competitor Samurai Games releasing a similar title called Samurai vs. Robots. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) with and without competition are as follows: Demand Ninjas vs. Pirates with competition High Medium Low Profit $900 $500 $300 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.4 Ninjas vs. Pirates without competition Profit $1700 $900 $500 Probability 0.5 0.2 0.3 a) Construct a decision tree. b) Calculate the EMVs and state your decision if there is a 75% probability that Samurai vs. Robots will be released. c) If the probability that Samurai Games will release their game Samurai vs. Robots changes from 75% to 65% what are the new EMVs? Does this change your decision? 

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