Forecasting Methodology: Choose an appropriate demand forecasting method (e.g., qualitative, quantitative, or a combination) based on the nature of your product/service and available data. Explain the chosen method and its rationale
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a.
qualitative, quantitative, or a combination) based on the nature of your product/service
and available data. Explain the chosen method and its rationale
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- Given November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error alpha 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Mean Bias MAD (mean error) Problem 6: Maverick Jeans' demand manager decided to evaluate exponential smoothing. To maintain com- parability, she used the data from problem 6, copied below. 1 Month 2 3 Demand 20 18 21 25 4 5 24 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 Develop forecasts for months 5-12. Calculate the Bias and MAD. Use a starting forecast of 20 for month 4 and an alpha value of 0.2. (Note: Adjust all cell values to two decimal points.)Problem 3-2 (Algo) National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as fol Month Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sales (000) Units 19 22 8 1272 24 19 27 22 Click here for the Excel Data File a. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1) The naive approach.
- 11. Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald's restaurant: Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand Monday 88.00 88.00 Tuesday 72.00 88.00 Wednesday 68.00 84.00 Thursday 48.00 80.00 Friday − ? Part 2 The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, the forecast for Big Mac demand for Friday is __________ Big Macs (round your response to one decimal place).Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)2. Explain the three different source of information and forecast assumptions
- 1. Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in thenext quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its sales force due to falling demand andhe worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut back on orders, he turns in an optimistic forecast of his next quartersales to his manager. What are the pros and cons of doing that?Forecast is calculating estimates of future cycle/s based on data of past cycles -- there is no?The table shows the values found in the error analysis. What method of forecasting would be best to use? What is the forecasted value? MSE forecast for week 13 Time Series 1.08 14.76 3-week MA 3.04 13.67 exp smoothing 11.04 9.5 Group of answer choices A.) Time Series, forecasted value = 14.76 B.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 13.67 C.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 9.5 D.) Time Series, forecasted value = 1.08 E.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 3.04 F.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 11.04
- a. What is your forecast for December of Year 4, making period 1 as the starting period for the regression? b. The actual demand for period 48 was just learned to be 5,100. Add this demand to the Inputs file and change the starting period for the regression to period 2 so that the number of periods in the regression remains unchanged. How much or little does the forecast for period 49 change from the one for period 48? The error measures? Are you surprised?c. Now change the time when the regression starts to period 25 and repeat the process. What differences do you note now? What forecast will you make for period 49?Given the Actual Demand from January to June of 2021, along with the forecasts based on three (3) selected methods. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Actual 960 1,230 1,520 1,350 1,800 1,920 Method 1 1,308 1,073 1,150 1,467 1,425 1,682 Method 2 1,324 1,215 1,219 1,310 1,322 1,465 Method 3 867 979 1,340 1,330 1,930 2,524 From the different methods, which is best? 1, 2, or 3? py What is the MAD value of the best method? What is the MSE value of the best method? What is the MAPE value of the best method? Answer using two decimal places.1. Solve manually. The following gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks. Pints Used 360 Week August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 389 410 381 368 October 5 374 a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. b. Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.1, 0.3 and 0.6, using 0.6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. c. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and c=0.2. d. Compute the MAD for the 3-week moving average, 3-week weighted moving average and exponential smoothing models above.
