Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to three decimal places. MSE: MAD: MAPE:
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?constants of .6 and .9, develop fo recasts for the sales of VWBeetles. What effect did the smoothing constant have on the forecast?Use MAD to deternline which of the three smoothing constants (.3,.6, or .9) gives the most accurate forecast. ~ (MyLab OperationsManagement also includes a shorter (brief) version of this problem.)4 .Substitute for Problem # 4 on in attachment)-Calculate the MAD,revised MAD and the Revised Forecast for months 1-6 for the following three groups,where the Forecast stands for Forecast Demand.Has your forecast improved ? Tell me how would you go about improving the revised forecast( for each of the three groups)without actually doing so? Estate Planning Group Auditing and Accounting Group Business Consulting Group Month Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast 1 100 125 270 230 140 135 2 90 125 240 230 130 135 3 110 125 280 230 160 135 4 115 125 260 230 180 135 5 130 125 300 230 200 135 6 115 125 220 230 190 135
- Sara manages one of the Albireds shoe lines, and is working to improve the group's forecasting capabilities so that production will more closely match actual demand (that's the goal, at least!). Work our the exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, (seed the model with a January forecast = 16,000). A weighted moving average using 0.6(t-1), 0.3(t-2) and 0.1(t-3)Daily time series data are collected forAetna stock closing values (referencedto 100). a) Use exponential smoothing withsmoothing constant 0.4 to completethe table. b) Forecast the next Aetna stock closingvalue and find the boundaries forvalues within 1 MAE of the forecast.t Yt Ft et1 4.09 2 6.073 5.404 7.485 8.314. What is the difference between trend and seasonality in time series data? 5. Here are the errors associated with a particular forecast over the past 5 months, in chronological order: 5, 10, -15, 0, 8. In which month was the forecast perfectly accurate? In which month was the forecast the least accurate? In which month or months was the forecast too high? (Noteshaper Ramp Up # 23) 6. Tutoring Center needs to allocate tutors this week for office appointments, so it needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently: Time Period Code Student Appointments Jan 6 - 10 95 Jan 13 - 17 80 Jan 20 - 24 65 Jan 27 – 31 4 50 a) What is the naïve forecast for the number of student appointments for Time Period 5 (Feb 3– 7)? b) What is the 2 week moving average for Time Period 5? c) What is the 3 week moving average for Time Period 5? d) What is the forecast for Time Period 5 using exponential smoothing with alpha =…
- 1. Explain the challenges of managing service industry with suitable example? You being a service manager what the precautionary steps you will be initiating-Explain. 2. You are a manager working with operation department and your general manager asked to analyze the key external factors of the industry you are working with suitable example. 3. You are working with an airline company and your manager requested to submit report on elements of a good forecasting and explain pros and cons of delayed forecast.When creating a time series–based forecast for the amount of soda to be sold in thecafeteria next week, which data sources can you include in your forecasting process?a. The opinion of the principalb. Old demand datac. Data about upcoming sports eventsd. The age of the cafeteria workerIt wouldnt let me take a screenshot of the table so I had to copy and paste it in here. My question is: How do you Calculate a moving average forecast using the last 2 and 4 dates of stay. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? Discussion Question 1 - 200 room hotel Forecasts MA 2 Errors MA 4 Errors ES (0.8) Errors ES (0.5) Errors Date Day of Week Rooms Sold MA 2 MA 4 ES (0.8) ES (0.5) AE APE AE APE AE APE AE APE 6/1/2021 Tuesday 123 6/2/2021 Wednesday 109 6/3/2021 Thursday 140 6/4/2021 Friday 199 6/5/2021 Saturday 179 6/6/2021 Sunday 140 6/7/2021 Monday 117 6/8/2021 Tuesday 132 6/9/2021 Wednesday 108 6/10/2021 Thursday 151…
- Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)The Toro Cutlery Company has collected monthly sales information below: MONTH January February March April The company is examining two forecasting methods, moving average and exponential smoothing for forecasting sales. a. What will the forecast be for January the following year using a three-, four-, and five-month moving averages? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest whole number. Forecast (January, 3-month MA): 87667 Forecast (January, 4-month MA): 72500 Forecast (January, 5-month MA): 69600 b. What will the forecast be for January the following year using exponential smoothing with a = 0.6? Assume the forecast for February this year is 25,000. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest whole number. SALES 25,000 18,000 43,000 110,000 MONTH May June July August SALES MONTH 84,000 September 28,000 October 97,000 November 58,000 December SALES 27,000 105,000 82,000 76,000Exponential Smoothing, Exponentially Smoothed MAD, and Tracking SignalThe XYZ Company was flooded by a thunderstorm and lost part of its forecasting data.Positions in the table that are marked [a], [b], [c], [d], [e], and [ f ] must be recalculated from the remaining data.