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Using your workplace as an example, or, if you do not work in the food or beverage industry, choose a place you dine or drink at and describe what variables likely need to be considered in forecasting sales at the establishment that go beyond the usual "we're always busier on Fridays and Saturdays" element. For example, a manager at Black Mesa Coffee at the airport will likely plan for more sales during busy travel periods like the days surrounding Thanksgiving, but (some) other establishments might plan for slower sales around Thanksgiving.
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?PLEASE CHOOSE ONE ANSWER AND CLARIFY THE CHOICE A quantitative forecasting class assumes that sales (or other items to be forecast) follow a repetitive pattern over time. When a retailer uses daily sales of each product to identify patterns and to forecast inventory requirements, this is an example of: A::a deterministic model B::a causal model C::a time series forecasting technique D::a qualitative model “A” items are high-dollar value items which represent a small portion (usually 10-20 percent) of requisitions, purchase orders, and inventory items, but a large portion of annual spend (usually 70-80 percent). “A” items in ABC analysis are: A::reviewed infrequently B::normally carried in large quantities C::stored in a relatively insecure warehouse D::particularly critical in financial terms Decoupling inventories are carried __________________________________. The amounts and locations of raw material, work-in-process, and finished goods decoupling inventories depend on…
- Although the unpredicted, yet disruptive, impact of the CoViD-19 pandemic is global and has negatively affected all organizations, identify a business organization that you think has been affected the most. In the new normal, which forecasting time horizon (short-range, medium-range, or long-range) would you suggest should be adopted by this organization in forecasting the demand for its main product? Justify your answer. Cite your assumptions. Cite 2 to 3 factors that this business organization should use as a basis for forecasting the demand for its main product. Justify your answer.Forecasting as you have read isn't an exact science. There can be many intangibles that you just can't predict. Therefore, which forecasting method do you believe is most successful and which one do you think is least effective? Please explain.State whether the following statements are true or false. If the statement is false, write the correct answer: Forecasting is a prediction rather than a reality to mislead an organization into implementing the proper decisions. Answer: Short range forecast generally is used for decision making in a period of about three months, and the decision taken are related to job scheduling, assignments and production levels. Answer: Associate forecasting considers several dependent and independent variables to build a model and then forecast an item of interest. Answer: . please make sure the answer is correct 100%
- Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent five months along with the forecasts that had been made for those 5 previous months. Use the 3-period weighted moving average method to forecast the number of sales to expect next month. Use the following weights: 0.4 for the most recent, 0.3 for the 2nd most recent, and 0.3 for the 3rd most recent. Month Demand Forecast 1 308 337 2 388 341.4 3 344 368 4 400 342.8 5 341 378.4A forecast is, basically, a prediction, or guess. Business people would like the prediction to be as accurate as possible, however it is still a guess about something that will happen in the future. Consider then, the nature and characteristics of forecasting. What do you think the difficulties or obstacles to accurate forecasting might be? Submit and explain as many of these difficulties as you can think of.How are you going to make your forecast more effective? Give a concrete example.
