Deborah is at the casino and is considering playing Roulette. In Roulette, a ball drops into one of 36 slots on a spinning wheel. 17 of the slots are red, 17 are black, and 2 are green. Each slot is equally likely and occurs with probability 1/36. Deborah bets $1.00 on black. If the ball dro into a black slot she receives $2.00 and if it drops into a red or green slot, she receives nothing. The expected value of Deborah's bet (after subtracting the $1.00 she bet) is $ Given that Deborah makes this bet, she must be

Deborah is at the casino and is considering playing Roulette. In Roulette, a ball drops into one of 36 slots on a spinning wheel. 17 of the slots are red, 17 are black, and 2 are green. Each slot is equally likely and occurs with probability 1/36. Deborah bets $1.00 on black. If the ball dro into a black slot she receives $2.00 and if it drops into a red or green slot, she receives nothing. The expected value of Deborah's bet (after subtracting the $1.00 she bet) is $ Given that Deborah makes this bet, she must be

Microeconomic Theory

12th Edition

ISBN:9781337517942

Author:NICHOLSON

Publisher:NICHOLSON

Chapter7: Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 7.3P

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Deborah is at the casino and is considering playing Roulette. In Roulette, a ball drops into one of 36 slots on a spinning wheel. 17 of the slots are red, 17 are black, and 2 are green. Each slot is equally likely and occurs with probability 1/36. Deborah bets $1.00 on black. If the ball drops into a black slot she receives $2.00 and if it drops into a red or green slot, she receives nothing. a) The expected value of Deborah’s bet (after subtracting the $1.00 she bet) is $________________ b) Given that Deborah makes this bet, is she risk adverse, risk neutral, or risk loving?
A salesperson is trying to sell cars. The number of cars that she will sell depends on her effort "e" and her luck. Given her effort e, with probability 4e she is able to sell four cars, and with probability (1 - 4e) she is able to sell only one car. Her personal cost of effort is 100e². The dealership pays her a bonus b for each car sold. The salesperson is risk-neutral, and wants to maximize her expected utility, which is her expected income minus her effort cost. a) Given the bonus b, the salesperson's best response function is b) Suppose the dealership pays b = 2. Then the expected number of cars sold will be E(Q)=
Clancy has $4800. He plans to bet on a boxing match betweenSullivan and Flanagan. He finds that he can buy coupons for $6 thatwill pay off $10 each if Sullivan wins. He also finds in another storesome coupons that will pay off $10 if Flanagan wins. The Flanagantickets cost $4 each. Clancy believes that the two fighters each have aprobability of ½ of winning. Clancy is a risk averter who tries tomaximize the expected value of the natural log of his wealth. Whichof the following strategies would maximize his expected utility? (a) Don’t Gamble (b) Buy 400 S tickets and 600 F tickets(c) Buy exactly as many F tickets and S tickets (d) Buy 200 S and 300 F(e) Buy 200 S and 600 F
Suppose you own a house worth $500. However, there is a risk the house could burn down. If the house burns down, it will only be worth $25. There is a 5% chance the house burns down. However, you can buy insurance that will pay you if in the event the house burns down. Call the amount of insurance purchased K. The premium you have to pay for K dollars of insurance is 0.05×K. So, if hypothetically you wanted $100 of insurance, the premium would be $5. Assume you have log-utility u(x) = ln(x). What is the optimal amount of insurance, K ∗ ? (Note: the premium must be paid whether the house burns down or not.)
Bill owes Bob $36. Just before Bill pays him the money, he gives Bob the opportunity to play a dice game to potentially win more money. The rules of this game are as follows: If Bob rolls doubles (probability 1/6), Bill will Bob double ($72). If he misses doubles on pay the first try, he can try again or settle for half the money ($18). If he makes doubles on the second try Bill will again pay-up double ($72), but if Bob misses doubles on the second try Bill will only pay him one-third ($12). Should Bob decide to play the dice game with Bill, or insist that he pay the $36 now? Use a decision tree to support your answer.
Professor can give a TA scholarship for a maximum of 2 years. At the beginning of each year professor Hahn decides whether he will give a scholarship to Gong Yi or not. Gong Yi can get a scholarship in t=2, only if he gets it in t=1. Basically, the professor and TA will play the following game twice. TA can be a Hardworking type with probably 0.3 and can be a Lazy type with a probability of 0.7. Professor does not know TA's type. If TA is hard working, it will be X=5 and TA will always work if he gets a scholarship. If TA is lazy, it will be X= 1. There is no time discount for t=2. Find out a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium of the game.
2. Christiaan can go hiking, or he can stay at home. Hiking would be fun if nothing bad happens, but there is a risk if he goes hiking that he will meet a bear (not fun) or get bitten by a snake (very not fun). Christiaan decides that if there is a 5% chance of meeting a bear and a 1% chance of getting bitten by a snake, he would prefer to go hiking rather than stay at home. However, if the chance of meeting a bear is 10% and the chance of a snake bite is 5%, he definitely would rather stay at home. then (a) Consider the utility function: U (stay home) = 25, U (hike no event) = 100, U (hike & snake) -1000, U (hike & bear) = -200. Does this utility function represent Christiaan's pref- erences? Explain. (b) Suppose that the utility function in (a) does represent Christiaan's preferences. Would Christiaan prefer to hike or stay home if the probability of meeting a bear is 6% and the probability of being bitten by a snake is 4%? Show your work.
Arielle is a risk-averse traveler who is planning a trip to Canada. She is planning on carrying $400 in her backpack. Walking the streets of Canada, however, can be dangerous and there is some chance that she will have her backpack stolen. If she is only carrying cash and her backpack is stolen, she will have no money ($0). The probability that her backpack is stolen is 1/5. Finally assume that her preferences over money can be represented by the utility function U(x)=(x)^0.5 Suppose that she has the option to buy traveler’s checks. If her backpack is stolen and she is carrying traveler’s checks then she can have those checks replaced at no cost. National Express charges a fee of $p per $1 traveler’s check. In other words, the price of a $1 traveler’s check is $(1+p). If the purchase of traveler’s checks is a fair bet, then we know that the purchase of traveler checks will not change her expected income. Show that if the purchase is a fair bet, then the price (1+p) = $1.25.
Phil, Stu, and Doug are deciding which fraternity to pledge. They all assign a payoff of 5 to pledging Phi Gamma and a payoff of 4 to Delta Chi. The payoff from not pledging either house is 1. Phi Gamma and Delta Chi each have two slots. If all three of them happen to choose the same house, then the house will randomly choose which two are admitted. In that case, each has probability 2/3 of getting in and probability 1/3 of not pledging any house. If they do not all choose the same house, then all are admitted to the house they chose. Find a symmetric Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies.
In the final round of a TV game show, contestantshave a chance to increase their current winnings of$1 million to $2 million. If they are wrong, theirprize is decreased to $500,000. A contestant thinkshis guess will be right 50% of the time. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correctguess that would make playing profitable?
For the following questions consider this setting. The deciding shot in a soccer game comes down to a penalty shot. If the goal-keeper jumps in one corner and the striker shots the ball in the other, then it is a goal. If the goalie jumps left and the striker shoots left, then it is a goal with probability 1/3. If the goalie jumps right and the striker shots right, it is goal with probability 2/3. QUESTION Say the goalie's strategy is to jump left with probability 1 and the striker shoots left with probability 0.5, then the probability of a goal is (round to two digits) QUESTION If the striker shoots in either corner with probability 0.5 and the goalie likewise shoots in either corner with probability 0.5, then the probability of a goal is (round to 2 digits)
Matthew is playing snooker (more difficult variant of pool) with his friend. He is not sure which strategy to choose for his next shot. He can try and pot a relatively difficult red ball (strategy R1), which he will pot with probability 0.4. If he pots it, he will have to play the black ball, which he will pot with probability 0.3. His second option (strategy R2) is to try and pot a relatively easy red, which he will pot with probability 0.7. If he pots it, he will have to play the blue ball, which he will pot with probability 0.6. His third option, (strategy R3) is to play safe, meaning not trying to pot any ball and give a difficult shot for his opponent to then make a foul, which will give Matthew 4 points with probability 0.5. If potted, the red balls are worth 1 point each, while the blue ball is worth 5 points, and the black ball 7 points. If he does not pot any ball, he gets 0 point. By using the EMV rule, which strategy should Matthew choose? And what is his expected…