Consider the following decision tree. Which decision, A or B, is best? What is the expected value of this decision? .40 $3,000 1 A B .20 .80 3 OA, expected payoff = $2,000 OA, expected payoff = $2,120 OB, expected payoff = $1,800 OA, expected payoff = $2,100 4 .60 -$1,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,800
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- Given is a Decision Tree Diagram. The Payoffs 1-14 are given in the table below. Answer questions a, b, and c. 1/3 PayOff 5.. 1/3 PayOff 2 1/3 PayOff 3 0.30 0.50 PayOff 4 PayOff 5 Alternative A 0.20 PayOff 6 Alternative B 0.30 0.50 1/3 PayOff 7 1/3 2 PayOff 8 1/3 PayOff 9 5 PayOff 10 PayOff 11 0.20 PayOff 12 1/2 6 PayOff 13 3 1/2 PayOff 14 Payo 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 ff $ 5 -2 5 2 9 2 5 -5 3 4 4 -3 7 6 a) The value at node 4 is Blank 1 b) The value at node 8 is Blank 2 (in 1 decimal place) c) The best course of action or decision is to select alternative Blank 3Decision Table with Conditional Values for Happy Company: Product Market Condition and Payoff (RM) Favourable Stable Unfavourable 8,000 5,000 7,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 -5,000 -1,200 -1,000 A В C Do Nothing Probability 0.4 0.3 0.3 Opportunity loss table for Happy Company.: MARKET CONDITION AND PAYOFF (RM) MAXIMUM IN PRODUCT FAVOURABLE STABLE UNFAVOURABLE A ROW (RM) 5,000 5,000 3,000 A 3,000 3,000 1,200 1,000 8,000 1,000 1,000 Do Nothing Probability 8,000 6,000 0.3 0.4 0.3 Based on the above data answer the following questions: (a) Construct the expected opportunity loss table for Happy Sdn. Bhd. (b) State the best decision (value and product) under EOL method.2. Consider a bidding problem similar to that presented in class. You can still either bid high or low on either the dam or highway project, or you can not prepare a bid. However, the probabilities and outcomes are given in Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Table 2.1 Probabilities and profits of bid results Project Probability Conditional Profit [$] Bid Type of Result Upon Bid of Bid of Result High Win 0.20 Table 2.2 Lose 0.80 -50,000 Dam Low Win 0.40 Table 2.2 Lose 0.60 -50,000 High Win 0.10 Table 2.2 Lose 0.90 -100,000 Highway Low Win 0.20 Table 2.2 Lose 0.80 -100,000 Table 2.2 Outcome and probabilities, conditional on winning the bid Probability Possible of Outcome Project Bid Profit [$], if Bid is Type of Bid Upon Outcome Won High 600,000 0.60 High -100,000 0.40 Dam Low 300,000 0.70 Low -200,000 0.30 1,200,000 0.60 High High -200,000 0.40 Highway Low 600,000 0.70 Low -300,000 0.30 a(i) Consider that you want to maximize the Expected Value (EV) of profit. Draw the decision tree and "work the…
- Suppose your organization is deciding which of THREE projects to bid on. The information or each is in the Table 2 below. Assume that all up-front investments are not recovered, so the are shown as negative profits. Table 2: Three Projects Details Estimated Probability (P) Profits/Losses Project A 50% RM120,000 50% (RM50,000) Project B 30% RM100,000 40% RM50,000 30% (RM60,000) Project C 70% RM20,000 30% (RM5,000) Tasks: (a) Calculate the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for each project. Then, insert all the detail: into the table. (b) Based on your result, explain on which projects you would bid. Be sure to use the EMV information and your personal risk tolerance to justify your answer.Based on the following payoff table, answer the following: High Medium Low 20 20 5 25 30 11 30 12 13. 10 12 12 50 40 -28 Prior Probability 0.3 0.2 0.5 The expected value of perfect information is: Alternative A B C D E O -28. O 0. O 23. O 19. O 10.5.Expected monetary value is most appropriate:a) when the payoffs are equal.b) when the probability of each decision alternative is known.c) when probabilities are the same.d) when both revenue and cost are known.e) when probabilities of each state of nature are known.
- The following payoff matrix shows the various profit outcomes for 3 projects, A, B, and C, under 2 possible states of nature: the product price is $15 or the product price is $25. Profit Project A P= $15 60 B -28 C 40 Using the maximax rule, the decision maker would choose... Multiple Choice A. B. P = $25 80 160 100 impossible to say from the information givenScenario: The buyer and seller are engaging in an FPIF (Fixed-Price Incentive Fee) contract and agree on the following parameters: Target Cost: $380,000 Actual Cost: $395,000 Sharing Ratio: Buyer 70%/30% Seller Target Profit (AKA Target Fee): $20,000 Price Ceiling (AKA Point of Total Assumption): $410, 000 Please fill in the blanks below with the appropriate values. Target Cost: ---------------------------------- Actual Cost: ------------------------------------- Variance (over/under): -------------------------------- Seller sharing ratio: ------------------------------------- Overrun/Underrun:---------------------------------------------- Target Profit: -------------------------------------------------------- Profit:------------------------------------------------------------- Actual Cost: ------------------------------------------------------- Price: --------------------------------------------------------------- Price Ceiling:…Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Alternatives Low Future Demand Moderate High Small Facility 52 42 43 Medium Facility 50 49 49 Large Facility -15 38 Alternatives Small Facility Medium Facility Large Facility Worst Regrets ? ? ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is Blank 1 b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is Blank 2 c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is Blank 3 d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select Blank 4 facility 51
- 2. A city is holding an annual marathon event and wants to produce t-shits. Alfonso was able to obtain previous years' demand and probability data as given in below table. The selling price is $10, cost is $5, and the salvage value is $1. Calculate all payoff numbers in the table and profit. Show work. How many shirts should they prepare? Prepare 1000 Prepare 2000 Prepare 3000 Demand=1000| Demand=2000 Demand=3000 30% 35% 35% Profit I8. Ms. Rabiya Mateo and Ms. Sandra Lemonon, two real-estate investment partners, are assessing the relative risks of a prime property in Taguig City, and a comparable property in a similarly vibrant area of Iloilo City. One partner discounts heavily the value of the Taguig property because of the potential earthquake damage. The Taguig City-averse partner is most likely influenced by which element of risk management analysis? a. Risk Prioritization b. Risk Severity c. Risk Psychology d. Risk Response1. Kirsten is trying to decide where to go for her well-earned vacation. She would like to camp, but if the weather is bad, she will have to go to a motel. Given the costs and probabilities of bad weather given below, which destination should she choose? Camping cost Motel cost Probability of bad weather Nevada $21.2 $80.9 0.2 Oregon $15.9 $84.6 0.4 California $30 $95 0.1 a. California, because its EMV = $33.14 b. Nevada, because its EMV = $33.14 c. California, because its EMV = $36.5 d. Any of the 3 choices. e. Oregon, because its EMV = $43.38 f. Nevada, because its EMV = $43.38 g. None of the 3 choices. h. Oregon, because its EMV is $36.50.