Question 7 The following plots have been obtained for a time series. a) Suggest an appropriate ARIMA model based on the below plots. 120- 90- 60-

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Author:Jay Abramson
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Chapter4: Linear Functions
Section4.3: Fitting Linear Models To Data
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Question 7
The following plots have been obtained for a time series.
a) Suggest an appropriate ARIMA model based on the below plots.
120-
90-
60-
30-
acf
1980 Jan
0.2-
0.1-
0.0
-0.1-
1990 Jan
12
lag [1M]
18
2000 Jan
Month
pacf
0.2-
0.1-
0.0
-0.1-
2010 Jan
12
lag [1M]
18
2020 Jan
24
h) The following ARIMA output has been obtained from R. Based on this output
Transcribed Image Text:Question 7 The following plots have been obtained for a time series. a) Suggest an appropriate ARIMA model based on the below plots. 120- 90- 60- 30- acf 1980 Jan 0.2- 0.1- 0.0 -0.1- 1990 Jan 12 lag [1M] 18 2000 Jan Month pacf 0.2- 0.1- 0.0 -0.1- 2010 Jan 12 lag [1M] 18 2020 Jan 24 h) The following ARIMA output has been obtained from R. Based on this output
b) The following ARIMA output has been obtained from R. Based on this output,
explain which model would you recommend for forecasting?
##
.model
##
<chr>
## 1 arima 011
## 2 arima110
## 3 auto
sigma2 log_lik AIC AICC
<dbl>
17.1
17.1
BIC ar_roots
<dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <list>
17.4
ma_roots
<list>
<cp1 [5]>
-1393. 2787. 2787. 2806. <cpl [0]>
-1399. 2780. 2780. 2815. <cpl [5]> <cpl [0]>
-1392. 2788. 2788. 2807. <cpl [27]> <cpl [1]>
c) If your selected model in part b) above has a p-value of 0.900 in the Ljung-Box
test, would you recommend using this model? Explain why or why not.
Transcribed Image Text:b) The following ARIMA output has been obtained from R. Based on this output, explain which model would you recommend for forecasting? ## .model ## <chr> ## 1 arima 011 ## 2 arima110 ## 3 auto sigma2 log_lik AIC AICC <dbl> 17.1 17.1 BIC ar_roots <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <list> 17.4 ma_roots <list> <cp1 [5]> -1393. 2787. 2787. 2806. <cpl [0]> -1399. 2780. 2780. 2815. <cpl [5]> <cpl [0]> -1392. 2788. 2788. 2807. <cpl [27]> <cpl [1]> c) If your selected model in part b) above has a p-value of 0.900 in the Ljung-Box test, would you recommend using this model? Explain why or why not.
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