An operations manager has compiled the information below for four manufacturing alternatives (A, B, C,and D) that vary by production technology and the capacity of the machinery. All choices enable the same level of total production and have the same lifetime. The three states of nature represent three levels of consumer demand for the firm's products. Values in the table are net present values of future profits in millions of dollars. Show your workings in a table format to get credit for your answers.                                            High                   Medium           Low                                                    Demand                    Demand           Demand Alternative A                            90                      72                  86                    Alternative B                            70                      34                  95                    Alternative C                            41                      88              100                       Alternative D                               85               69                  55                          Which alternative is best according to maximax criterion?   Which alternative is best according to maximin criterion?   If the states of nature were equally likely, what is the expected value of each alternative and which alternative should be chosen?   Construct a regret table, and determine which alternative is best according to minimax regret criterion?   If further study revealed that the probability of high demand is 0.5, the probability of medium demand is 0.3, and the probability of low demand is 0.2, which alternative is best?   If the coefficient of optimism (α) is 0.6, which alternative is best according to Hurwicz criterion?

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Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
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            An operations manager has compiled the information below for four manufacturing alternatives (A, B, C,and D) that vary by production technology and the capacity of the machinery. All choices enable the same level of total production and have the same lifetime. The three states of nature represent three levels of consumer demand for the firm's products. Values in the table are net present values of future profits in millions of dollars. Show your workings in a table format to get credit for your answers.

 

 

                                       High                   Medium           Low                

                                   Demand                    Demand           Demand

Alternative A                            90                      72                  86                   

Alternative B                            70                      34                  95                   

Alternative C                            41                      88              100                      

Alternative D                               85               69                  55                   

 

 

 

  1. Which alternative is best according to maximax criterion?

 

  1. Which alternative is best according to maximin criterion?

 

  1. If the states of nature were equally likely, what is the expected value of each alternative and which alternative should be chosen?

 

  1. Construct a regret table, and determine which alternative is best according to minimax regret criterion?

 

  1. If further study revealed that the probability of high demand is 0.5, the probability of medium demand is 0.3, and the probability of low demand is 0.2, which alternative is best?

 

  1. If the coefficient of optimism (α) is 0.6, which alternative is best according to Hurwicz criterion?
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