A local real estate investor in Orlando is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment. Based on the Maximax criteria, the investor should choose Investment Motel Restaurant Theater Motel O Restaurant O Theater O Any of the three Shortage $-8,000 2,000 6,000 Gasoline Availability Stable Supply $15,000 8,000 6,000 Surplus $20,000 6,000 5,000
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- The owner of the Columbia Construction Company must decide between building a housing development, constructing a shopping center, and leasing all the company’s equipment to another company. The profit that will result from each alternative will be determined by whether material costs remain stable or increase. The profit from each alternative, given the two possibilities for material costs, is shown in the following payoff table: Material Costs Decision Stable Increase Houses $70,000 $30,000 Shopping center 105,000 20,000 Leasing 40,000 40,000 Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria. a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Minimax regret d. Hurwicz e. Equal likelihoodEllie Daniels has $200,000 and is considering three mutual funds for investment—a global fund, an index fund, and an Internet stock fund. During the first year of investment, Ellie estimates that there is a .70 probability that the market will go up and a .30 probability that the market will go down. Following are the returns on her $200,000 investment at the end of the year under each market condition: Market Conditions Fund Up Down Global $25,000 $ -8,000 Index 35,000 5,000 Internet 60,000 -35,000 At the end of the first year, Ellie will either reinvest the entire amount plus the return or sell and take the profit or loss. If she reinvests, she estimates that there is a .60 probability the market will go up and a .40 probability the market will go down. If Ellie reinvests in the global fund after it has gone up, her return on her initial $200,000 investment plus her $25,000 return after 1 year will be $45,000. If the market goes down, her loss will be $15,000. If she reinvests after…A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’s report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and a 0.80 probability that demand will be high. If the firms builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be $42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of S$42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its net present value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of $50 million. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be -$20 million, whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million. Analyze and prepare a…
- The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives adn various levels of demand at Robert Klassan's print shop: decision low high alt 1 $10,000 $36,000 alt 2 $6,000 $38,000 alt 3 -$2500 $52,000 The probability of low demand is 0.40 whereas the probability of high demand is 0.60. a) The alternative that provides Robert the greatest expected monetary value is _________ The EMV for this decision is $_______ b) The expected value with perfect information (EVwPI)= $______ c) The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for Robert= $________1. The Yellow Cab Pizza wants to launch a new pizza variant next month. After deliberations with their research department, marketing, finance and operations, they have broken down the possible variants into two (2) options: the Neapolitan and Chicago Deep Dish. The table below shows the possible profits (expressed in millions) for each option and the corresponding probabilities: Chicago deep dish Profit (x;) Probability (P,) Neapolitan Profit (x;) Probability (P,) 35 0.15 35 0.20 45 0.30 45 0.35 50 0.35 50 0.30 60 0.20 60 0.15Build-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table: Demand for Home Improvements Alternative Low Moderate High Hire ($250,000) $100,000 $625,000 Subcontract $100,000 $150,000 $415,000 Do nothing $50,000 $80,000 $300,000 Which alternative is best, according to each of thefollowing decision criteria?a. Maximinb. Maximaxc. Laplaced. Minimax regret
- Build-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table: Demand for Home Improvements Alternative Low Moderate High ($140,000) $86,000 $100,000 $138,000 $296,000 $130,000 $587,000 $416,000 $421,000 Hire Subcontract Do nothing Which alternative is best, according to each of the following decision criteria? a. The best decision according to maximin criterion is alternative and the payoff for this decision is $ (Enter your response as an integer.)Build-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table: The best decision according to laplace criterion is alternative to what? and the weighted payoff for this decision is what?Build-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table: Alternative Hire Subcontract Do nothing DEMAND FOR HOME IMPROVEMENTS Low Moderate High ($139,000) $183,000 $448,000 $85,000 $158,000 $587,000 $100,000 $143,000 $411,000 Show Transcribed Text Which alternative is best, according to each of the following decision criteria? a. Maximin b. Maximax c. Laplace d. Minimax Regret
- Build-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table:This is the same payoff table used in questions 2 and 3. Below is a payoff table that lists four mortgage options: Decision 1-year ARM 3-year ARM 5-year Arm 30-year fixed Rates Rise $66,645 $62,857 $55,895 $52,276 Outcomes Rates Stable $43,650 $47,698 $50,894 $52,276 4) Which of the following decisions has the best average payoff? CA. 3-year ARM B. 1-year ARM CC. 5-year ARM CD. 30-year Fixed Rates Fall $38,560 $42,726 $48,134 $52,276McHardee Press publishes the Fast Food Menu Book and wishes to determine how many copies to print. There is a fixed cost of $5,000 to produce the book and the incremental profit per copy is $0.40. Any unsold copies of the book can be sold at salvage at a $.60 loss. Sales for this edition are estimated to be normally distributed. The most likely sales volume is 12,000 copies and they believe there is a 7% chance that sales will exceed 20,000. How many copies should be printed? If any unsold copies can be sold at salvage at a $.70 loss, how many copies should be printed?