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- a Suppose you are given a choice between thefollowing options:A1: Win $30 for sureA2: 80% chance of winning $45 and 20% chance ofA2: winning nothing B1: 25% chance of winning $30B2: 20% chance of winning $45Most people prefer A1 to A2 and B2 to B1. Explainwhy this behavior violates the assumption that decisionmakers maximize expected utility.b Now suppose you play the following game: You havea 75% chance of winning nothing and a 25% chance ofplaying the second stage of the game. If you reach thesecond stage, you have a choice of two options (C1 andC2), but your choice must be made now, before youreach the second stage.C1: Win $30 for sureC2: 80% chance of winning $45 13.5 Bayes’ Rule and Decision Trees 767Most people choose C1 over C2 and B2 to B1 (from part(a)). Explain why this again violates the assumption ofexpected utility maximization. Tversky and Kahneman(1981) speculate that most people are attracted to thesure $30 in the second stage, even though the secondstage may never be…If a risk‐averse individual owns a home worth $100,000, and that individual iswilling to pay a maximum of $1,000 for an annual fire insurance policy that covers theentire loss in the event of a fire, then we know that:A. There is a one percent chance that the home will be destroyed by fire inthe next yearB. There is a greater than a one percent chance that the home will bedestroyed by fire in the next yearC. There is less than a one percent chance that the home will be destroyedby fire in the next yearD. None of the above is correct7. Suppose the only game in town involves flipping a fair coin (so Heads and Tails are equally likely), with a $x bet. If Heads comes up, the payoff is $0.9x; if Tails comes up, you lose the $x. You have $10,000, and must win at least $5,000 by tomorrow morning to pay off a debt to a mean dude. a. Compute the likelihood of winning at least $5000 by making a single bet of $10,000. b. Compute the likelihood of winning at least $1000 by playing the game 10,0000 times and betting a dollar each time. What is the likelihood of not losing money? Message learned?
- Saved to this PC V ut References A A Aa x² A a. b. C. O Search (Alt+Q) Mailings Review View Help Du A A EEE ΕΞ ΑΙ ¶ ↓ E- Paragraph LO Value of first donut Value of second donut Value of third donut Value of fourth donut Value of fifth donut Value of sixth donut S Normal Problem 1 Tammy loves donuts. The table shown reflects the value Tammy places on each donut she eats: $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 If the price of donuts is $0.20, how-many donuts will Tammy buy? Why? Body Text How much consumer surplus would she have at a price of $0.20? Styles m If the price of donuts rose to $0.40, how many donuts would she purchase now? What would happen to Tammy's consumer surplus?You and a coworker are assigned a team project on which your likelihood or a promotion will be decidedon. It is now the night before the project is due and neither has yet to start it. You both want toreceive a promotion next year, but you both also want to go to your company’s holiday party that night.Each of you wants to maximize his or her own happiness (likelihood of a promotion and mingling withyour colleagues “on the company’s dime”). If you both work, you deliver an outstanding presentation.If you both go to the party, your presentation is mediocre. If one parties and the other works, yourpresentation is above average. Partying increases happiness by 25 units. Working on the project addszero units to happiness. Happiness is also affected by your chance of a promotion, which is depends on howgood your project is. An outstanding presentation gives 40 units of happiness to each of you; an aboveaverage presentation gives 30 units of happiness; a mediocre presentation gives 10 units…1. A woman with current wealth X has the opportunity to bet an amount on the o ccurrence of an event that she knows will occur with probability P. If she wager s W, she will received 2W, if the event occur and if it does not. Assume that t he Bernoulli utility function takes the form u(x) = -e-TX with r> 0. How much should she wager? Does her utility function exhibit CARA, DARA, IARA?
- EXERCISE 1Below is a production possibilities table for consumer goods (Food) and capital goods(Robots):A B C D EFood 0 1 2 3 4Robots 10 9 7 4 01. Show these data graphically. Upon what specific assumptions is this productionpossibilities curve based?2. If the economy is at point C, what is the cost of one more food? Of one morerobot? Explain how the production possibilities curve reflects the law ofincreasing opportunity costs.3. If the economy characterized by this production possibilities table and curvewere producing 3 food and 2 robots, what could you conclude about its use ofavailable resources?4. What would production at a point outside the production possibilities curveindicate? What must occur before the economy can attain such a level ofproduction?EXERCISE 2Explain how (if at all) each of the following affects the location of a country’s productionpossibilities curve:1. The quality of education increases.2. The number of unemployed workers increases.3. A new technique…QUESTION 6 Paul is a risk loving decision maker, facing a lottery that yields either zero or 100 pounds with equal probabilities. A O a. Paul will agree to sell the lottery if and only if X> 100 Ob. Paul would never sell the lottery because he likes risk O. Paul may agree to sell the lottery for X 50Suppose person choose to play gamble that stres toplay the gamble they are a 10% de ce f $1000 and a 90% chance of thing Their unit function is presence in the folosing equation U-W2 where is equal tothe amount of himning to the income What is the expected sale of this amable? S 050 010 00 0100
- View History Bookmarks Profiles Tab Window Help E Inform I The va 8 Com G Home M Docun E Info pup O Dashb E operat O McGra Lectur ructure.com/courses/169731/external_tools/retrieve?display=full_width&url=https%3A%2F%2Funcc.quiz-Iti-iad-prod. 1 point When Target charges $95 for a children's game, they sell 100 units. When they charge $84, they sell 120 units. If they were to give away the game for free, how many units (Q) would be demanded? (Answer is NOT infınity) Enter as a value. ROUND TO THE NEAREST WHOLE NUMBER. Type your answer. Previous informative paper.pdf Ch4-ProjectMg...pptx Ch7&8-Manufa.pptx 25 ttv 20 F9 DOO ES #3Assuming you are risk neutral, frast answer the folowing two questions about your preferences: Scenario A: You are given $5.000 and offered a choice beheeen receiving an extra $2.500 with certainty or fipping a coin and getting $5.000 t heads or S0 if tain. Which option do you prefer? A The certain $2.500 is more valuable than the uncertain $5.000, I would choose the $2.500 Both options have identical payofs, so l am indiferent between the two options. The possibility of the 5.000 payoff is more valuable to me than the oertain $2.500, I chocse to fio a coin Scenario B. You are given $10.000 f you wil make the following choice: retum $2.500 or fip a coin and retum $5.000 heads and so tai. Which opton do you prefer? A The certain los of S$2.500 is more paintu than the possible loss of $5,000, I choose to fip a coin. OR The ponsibility of the los of $5.000 is more paintul to me than the certain los of $2.500, I would choose the $2.500 certan loss re Both options have identical payoffs, so…Suppose there is a 50–50 chance that a risk-averse individual with a current wealth of $20,000 will contract a debilitating disease and suffer a loss of $10,000. a. Calculate the cost of actuarially fair insurance in this situation and use a utility-of-wealth graph (such as shown in Figure 7.1) to show that the individual will prefer fair insurance against this loss to accepting the gamble uninsured. b. Suppose two types of insurance policies were available: (1) a fair policy covering the complete loss; and (2) a fair policy covering only half of any loss incurred. Calculate the cost of the second type of policy and show that the individual will generally regard it as inferior to the first. Reference: Figure 7.1
