1. (i) A utility function has the form U(w) = aw³ +bw2 where a, b E R. Assuming w > 0 and a 0, is U(w) ever suitable for a non-satiated and risk-averse investor? If it is, state the range of values of w this holds for as a function of a and b. You must include your working. (ii) Give an example of a utility function with DARA. Show all your working. (iii) An investor has IRRA. Would this investor prefer a fair gamble or to do nothing? Provide a short explanation of your answer.
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- 4) Consider investors with preferences represented by the utility function U = E(r) – Ao². (a) Draw the indifference curve representing a utility level of 10% for an in- vestor with a risk aversion parameter A = 3 in expected return-standard deviation space. (b) In the same graph, draw the indifference curve representing a utility level of 15% for an investor with a risk aversion parameter A = 3. (c) In the same graph, draw the indifference curve representing a utility level of 10% for an investor with a risk aversion parameter A = 5.2 Consider the two investments listed below with possible outcomes and probabilities: INVESTMENT (in $1000) SAFE RISKY INVESTMENT AMOUNTⓇ 40+ 40+ GOOD SCENARIO OUTCOME 45+ 80+ AVERAGE+ SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME 0.40* 0.40€ 42+ 45+ BAD+ SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME PROB 0.20 35+ 0.20 10+ 0.40€ 0.40+ b) a) Suppose I have utility function U(*) = (x)2. What is the expected utility from each investment? Which investment will I choose, if any? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. c) What is the value of the risk premium for the SAFE investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. d) What is the value of the risk premium for the RISKY investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition.< +a) Compute the (absolute) risk aversion measure dependent r(W) of utility function -e -aW Is r(W) on W?
- 2. Alice believes that her car would cost £12500 to replace if it was stolen or damaged. Based on crime statistics for the area she lives in, she believes that the probability of her car being stolen or damaged is 0.15. (i) Alice's utility function is given by U(w) = ln(w) for w > 0 and she as £35000 in the bank. Calculate how much Alice would be prepared to pay (in a single payment) to insure her car against theft or damage (ii) Repeat the calculation in the previous part but now assume Alice has £500000 in the bank.Utility Theory You live in an area that has a possibility of incurring a massive earthquake, so you are considering buyingearthquake insurance on your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damagingyour home during one year is 0.001. If this happens, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully coveredby earthquake insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including your home) are worth $250,000. A. Apply Bayes’ decision rule to determine which alternative (take the insurance or not) maximizes yourexpected assets after one year.6 (A) Sudesh invests in the business which will give him a return of 64 if it turns out to be successful, and Rs. 36 if it is a failure. The probability of failure is 2/3 and that of success is 1/3. The utility function derived from the wealth from this business is given by u(w) = w?. Suppose the insurance company offers to insure Sudesh against low earnings. The price of the insurance is 75 paisa for each rupee of benefit. How much of the insurance will she buy to maximize his utility?
- 2 (a) Consider the St. Petersburg Paradox problem first discussed by Daniel Bernoulli in 1738. The game consists of tossing a coin. The player gets a payoff of 2" where n is the number of times the coin is tossed to get the first head. So, if the sequence of tosses yields TTTH, you get a payoff of 2¹; this payoff occurs with probability. Compute the expected value of playing this game. (b) Assume that utility U is a function of wealth X given by U = X5 and that X= $1,000,000. In this part of the question, assume that the game ends if the first head has not occurred after 40 tosses of the coin. In that case, the payoff is 240 and the game is over. What is the expected payout of this game? (c) What is the most you would pay to play the game if you require that your expected utility after playing the game must be equal to your utility before playing the game? Use the Goal Seek function (found in Data, What-If Analysis) in Excel.a) (3) Consider two investments X and Y, where X pays $0 and $10 with equal probability and Y pays 0 with probability 0.75 and $20 with probability 0.25. What investment would an investor choose if her utility function is u(x) = x? u(x) = x u(x) = 1-e 10 () (i) (ii)5. Shift-in-charge Nazar Al Rushdy: Nazar is pessimistic about the market price. What is your guidance for Nazar? The decision to employ decision trees in crucial situations has been taken by Salem Al Harthi, the plant manager. The table below presents data on demand for a duration of 6 hours along with their respective probabilities. The first row of the table provides the probability of demand for the initial three hours when a leak occurs, denoted in parentheses. Subsequently, the following three rows indicate the probabilities of high, medium, and low demand for the succeeding three hours. To illustrate, if the initial 3-hour market price was low, the probabilities of high demand, medium demand, and low demand in the next three hours are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. Market price High Market price Medium Initial 3-hrs (0.2) Initial 3-hrs (0.5) Market price Low Initial 3-hrs (0.3) High demand (next (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 3 hrs) Medium demand (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (next 3 hours) Low demand…
- 6. An analyst is assessing a DM's utility function for profit Y, in dollars, ranging from -400,000 to 2,000,000, and wishes to use a function: U(Y) : = Y+400,000 B 2,400,000 9 -400,000 ≤ y ≤ 2,000,000 She determined that the DM is indifferent between Alternative A and Alternative B: Alternative A: Probability 0.5 of making profit $2,000,000 Probability 0.5 of making profit -$400,000 Alternative B: Probability 1.0 of making profit of $800,000 (a) What would you use for the DM's utility function? Show your work. 6 (b) Why could you use Expected Value when analyzing problems involving profit for this DM?Q1. A farmer believes there is a 50-50 chance that the next growing season will be abnormally rainy. His expected utility function has the form Expected utility = 0.5lnYNR + 0.5lnYR Where and represent the farmers income in the state of ‘normal rain’ and ‘rainy’ respectively. Suppose the farmer must choose between two crops that promise the following income prospects Crop YNR YR Wheat $83,000 $10,000 Maize $83,000 $15000 What mix of wheat and maize would provide maximum expected utility to this farmer?A risk-averse expected-utility maximizer has initial wealth w0 and utility function u. She facesa risk of a financial loss of L dollars, which occurs with probability π. An insurance companyoffers to sell a policy that costs p dollars per dollar of coverage (per dollar paid back in theevent of a loss). Denote by x the number of dollars of coverage.(a) Give the formula for her expected utility V (x) as a function of x.(b) Suppose that u(z) = −e−zλ, π = 1/4, L = 100 and p = 1/3. Write V (x)using these values. There should be three variables, x, λ and w. Find the optimal value of x,as a function of λ and w, by solving the first-order condition (set the derivative of the expectedutility with respect to x equal to zero). (The second-order condition for this problem holds butyou do not need to check it.) Does the optimal amount of coverage increase or decrease in λ,where λ > 0?(c) Repeat exercise (b), but with p = 1/6.(d) You should find that for either (b) or (c), the optimal coverage…