1. (a) Is it theoretically possible to reconcile the notion that a country may experience lower inflation than another country and have an appreciating home currency, but that the latter could happen even if its inflation were higher than that of the other country?
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- c. Consider a period when, prior to euro entry, the central bank of Lithuania maintained an exchange rate band relative to the euro-at the time this was a prerequisite for joining the Eurozone. The rules said that Lithuania had to keep its exchange rate within ±15% of the central parity of 3.4528 litas per euro. Compute the exchange rate values corresponding to the upper and lower edges of this band. Suppose PPP holds. Assuming Eurozone inflation was 2% per year and inflation in Lithuania was 6%, compute the PPP-implied rate of depreciation of the lita. Could Lithuania maintain the band requirement? For how long? Does your answer depend on where in the band the exchange rate currently sits? A primary objective of the European Central Bank is price stability (low inflation) in the current and future Eurozone. Is an exchange rate band a necessary or sufficient condition for the attainment of this objective?Course: Macroeconomics Subject: Mundell-Fleming Model EXPLAIN IN DETAIL and GRAPHIC with the Mundell-Fleming model under flexible exchange rate and perfect capital mobility the different chain effects (i.e. changes in macroeconomic variables as PIB, interest rate, exchange rate, Investment, Consumption, currency movement, etc.) that would be generated if the Business Confidence Index falls permanently in a given country. How would the results obtained change if long periods of time (permanent changes) are analyzed through the Aggregate Supply (AS) and Aggregate Demand (AD) Model?Assume that the export price of a Toyota Corolla from Osaka, Japan is ¥4,200,000. The exchange rate is ¥109.60/$. The forecast rate of inflation in the United States is 2.5% per year and is 1.5% per year in Japan. Use this data to answer the following questions on exchange rate passthrough. What was the export price for the Corolla at the beginning of the year expressed in the U.S. Dollars? Assuming purchasing power parity holds, what should the exchange rate be at the end of the year? Assuming a 65% pass-through of the exchange rate, what will be the dollar price of a Corolla at the end of the year?
- (a) An analyst argues that exchange rate movements depend on interest rate differentials (that is, the International Fisher effect), country-specific economic policy uncertainty measures and country-specific GDP growth rates. With this in mind, the analyst estimates the following model:Expected rate of appreciation of yen against the dollar(%)= =0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]+0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]2+0.2[σUS(%) – σJAP(%)]++0.2[σUS(%) – σJAP(%)]2+0.1[GDPJAP(%) – GDPUS(%)].In this model, idollar(%) is the one-year interest rate in the US, iyen(%) is the one-year interest rate in Japan, σUS(%) refers to economic policy uncertainty in the US, σJAP(%) refers to economic policy uncertainty in Japan, GDPUS(%) refers toannual GDP growth in the US and GDPJAP(%) refers to annual GDP growth in Japan. Assume idollar=6%, iyen=4%, σUS=5%, σJAP=1%, GDPUS=2% and GDPJAP=1%. Calculate the expected rate of appreciation of the yen against the dollar. Explain your findings in no more than 200 words .(b) An…The net foreign assets (NFA) dynamics equation: NFAtYt=NFAt-1/Yt-1+ (i+лt)NFAt-1/Yt-1-gtNFAt-1/Yt-1+NXt/Yt. NFAt-net foreign assets, Yt - nominal GDP, it - nominal interest rate, лt - inflation rate, gt-compounded GDP growth rate, NXt - net export, t - year. Each term is referred to as "contribution of". Current account CAt=NFAt-NFAt-1 Flow identity S/Y = I/Y+NX/Y, where S-savings, I- investments Lawson Doctrine Sp+Sg = I + NX, wher Sp=Y-T-C private savings, Sg= T-Ggovernment savings, T-taxes, G-government purchases. Assumed NX=0 2014 2015 Real GDP growth (annual percent) 3.6 3.9 Inflation (annual percent) 5.2 5.6 Interest rate (nominal, annual percent) 6.3 6.9 Net export (percent of GDP) 3.9 1.7 Net foreign assets (percent of GDP) 4.7 ? Savings (percent of GDP) 21.3 24.5 What is the contribution of the real interest rate of 2014 to the net-foreign-assets-to-GDP ratio of 2015? A. 0.12% B. 0.26% C. 0.35% D. 0.63%Suppose we consider two countries, a home country and a foreign country. In the home country, the expected inflation rate is equal to 3.6 per cent, while the expected inflation rate abroad is equal to 4.2 per cent. Furthermore, it is known that the nominal interest rate in the home country is equal to 3.4 per cent, while the nominal interest rate abroad is equal to 4 per cent.a) First explain what is meant by absolute purchasing power parity, relative purchasing power parity and uncovered nominal interest rate parity. Then give an estimate of the expected growth in the nominal exchange rate based on each of the three theories. Finally, show that if both relative purchasing power parity and uncovered nominal interest rate parity apply, real interest rates in the two countries will be approximately equal.
- (a) An analyst argues that exchange rate movements depend on interest rate differentials (that is, the International Fisher effect), country-specific economic policy uncertainty measures and country-specific GDP growth rates. With this in mind, the analyst estimates the following model: Expected rate of appreciation of yen against the dollar(%)= =0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]+0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]2+0.2[σUS(%) – σJAP(%)]+ +0.2[σUS(%) – σJAP(%)]2+0.1[GDPJAP(%) – GDPUS(%)]. In this model, idollar(%) is the one-year interest rate in the US, iyen(%) is the one-year interest rate in Japan, σUS(%) refers to economic policy uncertainty in the US, σJAP(%) refers to economic policy uncertainty in Japan, GDPUS(%) refers to annual GDP growth in the US and GDPJAP(%) refers to annual GDP growth in Japan. Assume idollar=6%, iyen=4%, σUS=5%,σJAP=1%, GDPUS=2% and GDPJAP=1%. Calculate the expected rate of appreciation of the yen against the dollar. Explain your findings in no more than 200 words.…Mexico and the United States are trade partners. Each country has a zero current account balance and is operating in long-run equilibrium. Assume that the inflation rate in the United States is slowing relative to Mexico's inflation rate. (a) How will the inflation rate change in the United States affect: (i) Mexico's demand for U.S. goods and services? (ii) net exports of Mexico? Explain. (b) Illustrate the impact of the change you identified in part (a) on a fully labeled AD–AS model for the economy of Mexico. Use arrows to indicate any changes in AD, real GDP, and price level. (c) Ceteris paribus, will the national income of the United States increase, decrease, or remain the same? (d) On side-by-side and fully labeled foreign exchange market graphs, illustrate the impact of the change in relative inflation on the supply of Mexican pesos and on demand for U.S. dollars. Use arrows to indicate the change in the equilibrium exchange rate for each currency.…Assume UK inflation rate falls relative to US inflation rate. Other things being equal, how should this affect the (a) UK demand for Dollars, (b) supply of Dollars for sale, and (c) equilibrium value of Dollars? (Indicate with a single graph). Which currency is going to appreciate in this regard?
- 33 As a country begins to liberalize its capital account, what would you expect to happen to the difference between the interest rates for similar assets in this country and another country with open capital markets? A get smaller B stay the same (c) exponential divergence D It depends on the existing exchange rate. E) get larger 34 Which statement is NOT true regarding emerging markets? A) Emerging market financial institutions have generally proven to be weaker than those in industrialized countries B) Emerging market financial institutions contributed to the financial crisis of 1997-1999 C Countries with emerging markets have been unable to liberalize their financial systems to allow private trade with foreigners D Countries with emerging markets include Brazil, Mexico, and Thailand. (E) Emerging markets are the capital markets of poorer, developing countries that have liberalized their financial system to allow private asset trade with foreigners 35 Which of the following is TRUE…A10 Suppose that P = 100, P* = 200, e = 0.75 where P is the domestic price level, P* is the foreign price level and e is the nominal exchange rate (i.e. number of domestic currency units required to buy 1 unit of foreign currency).a) Find the real exchange rate.b) If the domestic price level increases, what will be the effect on the real exchange rate, imports and exports?Assume that initially nominal exchange rate is E1=4 ($1 = ±4) and domestic (Turkey) inflation rate is TTR=10% percent while the US inflation rate is tUS*=0%. If %3D export value of Turkey equals ± 200 billion and it's import is $80 billion. Initially Turkey NX (net export) would display t billion deficit. If the nominal exchange rate increases suddenly from E1=4 to E2=5,5 while the price levels are still fixed (at the first step of J Curve) NX would be t billion deficit in short run. If the real exchange rate elasticity of export is 0,4 and real exchange rate elasticity of import is -0,4. NX would converge to t billion deficit in long run.