3.5 Cohort-Component Method
One way to Project an area’s population is the cohort-component method, which is used for many state and local governments. This method offers in depth demographic statistics on why and how the population changes. There are 2 steps in this method. The first is to separate the population into groups of age and sex. The second step is to implement fertility, mortality, and migration rates to each distinct group. There are some things that have to be taken into account for this method before computing anything. The first is that all of the age groups have to be the same in that the years in the cohorts (n) are matching. The second is that the amount of years in the projection intervals (z) should identify with the number of years in the cohorts (n). The last one is that all the rates used in this model have to be altered to show five-year projection periods.
3.5.1 The Mortality Component
The first thing we do is calculate the female population likely to survive until the year 2005. There are two things that can happen which rely on the age-specific survival rate (nsrx). The populations for females in the initial year which is 2000 (nFx 2000) can move in the start of 2005 to the following age cohort (n SFx+z 2005) or will live from 2000 to 2005 (n DFx 2000-2005). The first calculation is to multiply the launch year of the female population in 2000 by its age-specific survival rate. n SFx+z 2005 =( nFx 2000 )( nsrx )
• nFx 2000 is the female
Demographics provide the specifics necessary to obtain knowledge pertaining to a city’s inhabitants. Attaining this type of detailed information is vital to the creation of a flourishing municipality. Demographic data can offer crucial material in relation to the particulars, such as the districts residents reside, the districts most preferred, the areas more highly safeguarded, high crime areas, the elementary schools most preferred and what type of developments residents want to see within the area. Verification is made by evaluating the demographic attributes of the populace, areas of
Colby, S. & Ortman, J. (2015). Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to
I thought this was a very valuable method that I could possibly use when I become a planner. I knew there was a way to project populations but never knew that there was a simple way to do it on excel. I already had some knowledge in excel but I didn’t pay too much attention to the formulas that I could use. Projections, forecasts, and estimates are all different and should not be used without knowing the exact meanings. I used to use them interchangeably, but now I do not because I understand them now. Projection is the popularly used word for statements that are taken from mathematics and are based on inferences decided in advance. Forecasts are the statements that have the highest probability to happen in the future. Estimates are about specific statistics from the past or present statistics. Estimates fill in the years between two different census. Both the Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPC) and Annual Absolute Population Changes (AAAC) methods are able to project the population of a given year. When I tried out both methods to see which one worked better for me I ended up using the AAAC equation, because there were better examples to help me understand this projection
1 According to District Profile Analysis, The total population of my district is 180,798. The population between 0-4 years is about 13,598 which is 7.5%. People with 5-17 years have the population of 32,736 coving 18.1%. Between 18-64 years, my district has the population of 119,962 which occupies the most percentage (66.4%). Above 65 years, district has a population of 14,502 which is 8%. The population over 5 years is 167,200 which is about 93% of the total.
Detailed analysis of the past profile of population growth is needed to answer this question. However, because of the rapid rate of population growth, ministry needs to change policies and set new plans to address housing, transportation and environmental problems.
Evaluate the population trends in each county (not country). Why are they different or the same? Expound on your reasons. List your sources.
To make clear, the age and gender cardiovascular mortality rates, Bluegrass East has a higher rate than Bluegrass West; to justify this example the direct age and gender adjustment of cardiovascular mortality for Bluegrass East and Bluegrass West. The anticipated quantity of occupants in Bluegrass West remains 1,019,150, with an entire figure of occupants in Bluegrass West and Bluegrass East in the United States remains 280,000,000:1,019,150 / 280,000,000 = .00364 x 100,000 = 364 per every 100,000 occupants. The foreseeable number of occupants in Bluegrass East is 1,017,650 the compute number of inhabitants in Bluegrass West and Bluegrass East in the United States remain 280,000,000; the estimation justifies 343 per every 100,000 occupants
The graph compares the alteration in population of three counties, Columbia, Yamhill and Washington in the U.S. state of Oregon, between 1940 and 2000. It can be clearly seen that the population of Columbia and Yamhill almost identical, started low in 1940 then increased significantly from 1970 to 2000. while Washington population was higher than the other counties and then increased rapidly reach its higher level.
data, and a new methodology for estimating annual trends in population growth. It is the third in
The cohort component approach has three main components: births, deaths, and migration. The cohort component model uses these three components to move age/sex cohorts forward through time, creating a new age/sex distribution at each five-year time point. The success of the model depends on identifying appropriate fertility, mortality, and migration rates to apply to different age
The Demographic environment relates to the structure of populations (Oxford Dictionaries | English, 2017). The factors that contribute to the demographic environment relevant to this report are location and density of the population.
In the 1900's the U.S. population growth was increasing rapidly. The diagram shows that there was an age structure of much more younger aged people than older aged people which indicated the population would grow more quickly. In the 2000's the population age structure is becoming more populated with older ages.The population has some small differences between the older generations being slightly higher in numbers than the younger generations, so the growth rate is declining slightly. In 2050, it is projecting the age structure to be very evenly distributed between the older and younger generations which will stabilize the population growth rate to largely remain the same. It shows total populations of both the younger and older generations
Explaining the demographic transition model is when model changes during time. The demographic model educates how crude birth and crude death rates changes over time. Yet, the demographic transition model has its difficulties; the model doesn’t show procedures as to how lengthy it takes a country to get from stage 1to stage
It is important to factor in the coastal settlements which are connected to the city centre as they are homogenous and account for a fluid population of travellers and workers.
Demography is the study of the components of population variation and change. Death rate and birth rate are two determinants of population change. Theory of Demographic Transition is comparatively recent theory that has been accepted by several scholars throughout the world. This theory embraces the observation that all countries in the world go through different stages in the growth of population. A nation's economy and level of development is directly related to that nation's birth and death rates. Population history can be divided into different stages. Some of the scholars have divided it into three and some scholars have divided it into five stages. These stages or classifications demonstrate a