Sales Forecasting Budget and Control

Using the assumptions given in the case, all elements of income statement and balance sheet can be projected for next three years 2010, 2011 and 2012. Sales cycle of the products of the company is such that sales of a particular product increases initially for few years and then starts to decline as the new technology

Target is the second biggest retail company after Walmart. Native New Yorker, George Draper Dayton first built a company named Dayton Dry Goods Company in 1902 in the Minneapolis area which is now known as target headquarter. Walmart faced the out of stock issue problem last year and now their biggest competitor, Target, also has faced the same problem this year. Target has a problem keeping the availability of the product in their stores in Canada. It resulted in a huge loss of money and closing down their stores. The CEO of Target said that this is a serious problem and must been solved.

To respect better the sales objective, there is in the new incentive plan a commission which is paid on the sales forecast accuracy . So this new commission is something really good to improve the operating process buisnessand not only the potential sales objective. And also with this new rule salesperson will forecast the minimum target in order to reach their target.

Forecasting is part of a company’s future planning as it attempts to estimate future demand for its product or services. Forecasting is usually measured in specific time periods (months, weeks, etc), given a desired level of accuracy, and assigned a unit of forecasting (sales in units or dollars) (Download Reports 2011). PepsiCo bases its sales forecasts on two main factors: changes in consumer tastes, particularly the rise health consciousness among consumers; and how legal regulations may impact operations, such more federal and local laws

While it is true that Ms. Forthright had always exceeded her budgeted sales, the extent to which she diverts away from the managers projections does not necessarily means that she is violating honesty and integrity. Her decision on what her budgeted sales for the year is highly relevant to the data available to her. Her projections tends to lie between the field manager and the marketing manager’s predictions, which can be reasonable because in the past years, the field manager’s projections tend to be over what the actual sales of the year will be.

The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer

Thank you for the opportunity to assess your sales data in order to provide recommendations for increasing your sales. The analysis and recommendations below are based on the data you provided, which covers a period from May 2004 through June 2006. The analysis below is based on this data alone. Therefore, our recommendations should be tempered by your knowledge of business realities and your market. Please let us know if we can answer any questions concerning the analysis or the recommendations provided.

* Our company’s sales forecast has been based on performance from previous years along with market circumstances. We are looking at the future of the business objectively which we then can evaluate past to

Greaves provided five years and two months of annual sales data. Using Stat Tools, the following analysis were run: Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing Simple, Exponential Smoothing Holt’s, and Exponential Smoothing Winter’s. Following a comparison on the average on all models, the Exponential Smoothing Winter’s was found to be the most suitable model for the case. A graph

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

Before, the concept of demand forecast was to serve the key functional groups in achieving their own interest. Facing the new challenges, forecast needed to be more accurate. And therefore it needed a new concept that is to have a consensus forecasting that would accurately reveal market demand and align the needs of key actors in the forecasting process. Leitax implemented two specific changes in forecasting process. The first one is to switch the focus from sell-in to sell-through and second one is to ignore capacity constraints.

Economists use the retail sales data in their models to make predictions on a wide variety of economic issues. Again, because retails sales accounts for such a large proportion of GDP, it is used along with other factors as a way to estimate the direction of the quarterly and annual GDP numbers. Used in conjunction with data such as the consumer price index, it is also very relevant for inflation forecasts as the data can offer glimpses into the affects of rising or falling prices. This in turn is closely tied to predictions for the direction of future interest rates as potential additional government action. Finally the retail sales data can be used to estimate

The newly appointed district sales manager, Larry Barr, faces the problem of allocating sales quotas among his various sales representatives. This decision will affect everyone's earnings including his own. This problem is compounded by the fact that different territories have, for a variety of reasons, different potentials. In addition, the territory that is known to be the toughest will soon require a new sales rep.

Planning system weaknesses: To begin with, fundamental assumptions, such as new plants, inventory carryovers, packaging trends, etc., which are used for initial sales forecast, are entirely made by corporate headquarters. However, the divisional managers assume full responsibility for the estimates they submitted to the corporate head office. As a result, they have to make efforts to increase the overall accuracy of forecast and avoid making changes in subsequent reviews of the budget. Moreover, each product line uses the same forecasting method. It is ineffective for the company to make accurate budget since factors affecting each product line are different, such as industry trends, customer preferences and so on. Lastly, instead of plant managers, the district sale managers raise the sales budgets. However, the plant managers are held accountable for this budgeted profit number, which is connected with their performance and is not controlled by them.

Sales which can be generated from current resources is know as projected level of sales.