Read the book "The Drunkard's Walk - How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Mlodinow and pay special attend to the following questions. Some of these questions may appear on quizzes and exams.
Chapter 1 Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness
1. Explain the phenomenon "regression toward the mean."
In any series of random events an extraordinary event is most likely to be followed, due purely to chance, by a more ordinary one.
2. What factors determine whether a person will be successful in career, investment, etc.?
Success in our careers, in our investments, and in our life decisions, both major and minor—is as much the result of random factors as the result of skill, preparedness, and hard work.
3. Was Paramount's
…show more content…
3. Do psychics exist?
4. What is tolerance of error, tolerance of uncertainty, statistical significance?
5. Describe some applications from the book of the law of large numbers and the law of small numbers.
Chapter 6 Bayes's Theory
1. Two-daughter problem
In a family with two children, what are the chances that both children are girls?
Ans: 25%
In a family with two children, what are the chances, if one of the children is a girl, that both children are girls?
Ans 33%
In a family with two children, what are the chances, if one of the children is a girl named Florida, that both children are girls?
Ans: 50%
2. How to apply Bayes's Theory to determine car insurance rates?
Ans : Models employed to determine car insurance rates include a mathematical function describing, per unit of driving time, your personal probability of having zero, one, or more accidents. Consider, for our purposes, a simplified model that places everyone in one of two categories: high risk, which includes drivers who average at least one accident each year, and low risk, which includes drivers who average less than one. If, when you apply for insurance, you have a driving record that stretches back twenty years without an accident or one that goes back twenty years with thirty-seven accidents, the insurance company can be pretty sure which category to place you in. But if you are a new driver, should you be classified as low risk
The basic elements mentioned in Drunk History are supported by the outsides sources. These include Bly’s search for employment as a writer in New York, knocking on the door of every newspaper
Laing was the only girl but she did have two brothers. Laing was very happy with a traditionally normal upbringing until she went to boarding school. It was at boarding school where she discovered how different she really was and it is at this point, her life would change forever. Laing was expelled from boarding school because she did not look like the other children and the teachers and administrators did not want her there. Laing was born with a genetic case of atavism resulting in her complexion being much darker than her family and the average white person. Free Dictionary.com states, “Atavism is the appearance in an individual of characteristics presumed to have been present in some remote ancestor; reversion to an earlier biologic type, a throwback.” It has been speculated that Laing’s condition is a result of a non-white
Boys are two times more likely than girls to receive such a diagnosis. (King, 2013).
9. No, because each child's 2 sets of chromosomes are rearranged independently, so that there is an equal probability of all of them having the same genotype (1/2^4, or 1/16) as there is of them having all different ones
21. Assume that a couple has four children who are all boys. What are the chances their next child will also be a boy? Explain your answer.
1. What is the likelihood that any of their children (sons and/or daughters) will be born with the disorder?
Studies have shown that a child with two right-handed parents has only a 2 percent chance of being left-handed. A child with one right-handed parent and one lefty has a 17 percent chance, and with two lefties for parents, the child has a 42 percent chance of being a lefty. Also, men are three times as likely to be lefties as women. One more fun fact: left-handedness is twice as common among twins as single births.
To spare cash on auto protection, think about setting as a higher deductible of what you would pay out of pocket, in the occasion of a mishap. The insurance agency costs arrangements taking into account what they hope to pay out in the event that you make a case and decreasing that sum, means lower premiums for
If both parents are CF carriers, each child has a one in four chance of having CF.
The reason that having insurance increases the likelihood of an accident is due to the moral hazard associated with car insurance. This is a situation in which one side of an economic relationship takes undesirable or costly actions that the other side cannot observe. For instance, Mary’s car insurance company doesn’t know that she occasionally texts while driving because they can’t physically see her driving. Mary does this because she assumes that if anything happens, she is insured and she will be able to financially cover the costs of any accident. It takes the responsibility off of Mary (slightly) and puts it on the insurance company which makes Mary act more recklessly. The person driving the vehicle is
If life affected so much by randomness, why do we think in hindsight we should have seen big things coming? It describes the attack on Pearl Harbor. It is easy to understand after the fact the clues that led to something but impossible to predict before. Then it gives some examples of the market success of products, focuses on an ability to react to events rather than predict them. In our daily life, there are many flexibilities.
This next table follows a similar skeleton as the one before. The table gives us an outcome for when we cross the two parents with each other, and then gives us another outcome by crossing another male and female from the F1 generation(the first offspring) which creates the F2 generation. So if we look at the numbers for the F1 generation, we can get about a 2:2 ratio of 2 wild males to 2 wild females. Then, if we look at the F2 generation we get around a 1:1:2 ratio of 1 wild male to 1 yellow male to 2 female wild. So all of this data tells us that throughout all the generation, none of the offspring turned out to be female yellow.
Based on your results for the female offspring, predict whether color blindness is a dominant or recessive trait. Explain your reasoning.
If you pay for your health insurance, chances are you already have an idea of what a deductible is. It represents the amount of money you'll need to pay out of pocket in the event of damages to or loss of your car. When your full deductible is paid, your insurance company reimburses the rest of the cost. Typically, the lower your deductible is, the higher your premium will be. An insuranceQuotes study found that Americans increasing their deductibles from $500 to $1,000 can save an average of 9 percent on their car insurance premiums.
Meet Henry, a man with dark hair, and Katie, a woman with gapped teeth. The couple has a child and from their physical description, we know that the child may turn out to have dark hair and gapped teeth. These simple examples are what color the fundamentals of genetics, but what if Henry and Katie have twin children. One child is a girl and she has dark hair